I’ll get into the nitty gritty later tonight. For now I’ll make a few observations on the new Economic Impact Report:
1. The firm used for this version, Conventions Sports & Leisure, is the same one used by the City of Santa Clara for their 49ers stadium study. I will be looking carefully for unrealistic projections.
2. Cost of the 32,000-seat ballpark is projected to be $461 million in 2009 dollars, $489 million in 2011 dollars. Ballpark would open in 2014.
3. The City’s projected impact is ~$1.5 million in additional general fund revenue, net of increased city service costs ($45k). The A’s would pay for all gameday police, emergency and traffic expenses.
4. Projected 2.1 million in attendance plus 3 non-baseball events.
5. 50% of attendees would not be from
San Jose and would be coming in solely for an A’s game.
6. Jobs – 350 during construction period, 980 net new jobs including 138 ballpark-specific jobs. I’ll get into why I’m skeptical about this later.
7. There are hints about what kind of deal could be struck within the numbers. Think property taxes.
8. An alternative development scenario projects just over 1 million new s.f. In office space. It could produce nearly 3x the number of post-construction jobs but yield $300k less tax revenue annually. The difference here is that completion of the construction would occur some 20 years after a ballpark due to commercial market conditions.
9. Yes, there is a section devoted to indirect impacts, which I will largely ignore.
10. This is the first official analysis from the City which refers to the A’s by name (88 instances).