So now it appears that Cedar Fair, the owners of Great America, don’t want to play ball. They’ve come out against the 49ers stadium concept on the lot north of the theme park, a stiffening of their need-more-info stance of a few months ago. Links:

• Chronicle’s Matier & Ross
• Mercury News (Julie Patel)
• SF Examiner (Bonnie Eslinger)

Wire services and others have picked up on an idea that 49ers spokesperson Lisa Lang has put out there: the 49ers may be interested in buying Great America to make the stadium work. Certainly it sounds interesting on the surface, but there probably isn’t much to it. Here’s why:

• Cedar Fair has already said it isn’t interested in selling. The company only bought the portfolio of theme parks from Paramount a little over a year ago. A look at recent press releases shows that the newly acquired parks have underperformed relative to Cedar Fair’s other properties. Cedar Fair notes that they’ve only begun the transition phase to bring the Paramount parks in line with their regular operations model. This is all part of a long-term strategy. You’d think they’d want to give Great America a shot at raising its performance before it gives up on Santa Clara. After all, it is their core competency. Of course, Cedar Fair’s statements are pure PR-speak and should be taken with a grain of salt, but it still makes sense in the end.
• How much would Great America be worth? The Paramount portfolio was acquired for $1.24 billion. That’s 5 parks. One article notes that the land’s assessed value is $114 million but that’s virtually meaningless. The 49ers would be buying the whole kit and caboodle. A more realistic estimate would be 1/5th of the portfolio, or $240 million. But the land is owned by the city, not Cedar Fair, so it could be worth less. So what is a fair price? And then what would happen after it’s sold? The 49ers would have to turn around and have someone operate the park since that’s not what they do. Would they want to develop some portion of the land to recoup their investment? Even if Cedar Fair were playing hardball to secure a good price for their investors, they’re in a position that gives them leverage. They’re not in an apparently desperate position in which they’re hemorrhaging cash. Note: Stock gains from the months following the acquisition have been wiped out as Cedar Fair reported the recent drag on the company’s performance from the Paramount parks.

One good thing may have come out of this: the Niners are now open to building on the overflow lot across from their team headquarters. That lot would be far more compatible for both parties than the planned site. On the other hand, the following item sounds distressing:

Bottom line, Lang says: “There are a number of site configurations (Cedar Fair) could look at if they are serious about wanting to go forward with the project.”

It’s a bad sign when most of the so-called negotiations are occurring through the media. Is the city supposed to shepherd this through? It’s hard to say.

Tomorrow, October 10, Keith Wolff will be making a presentation to the Fremont Unified School District Board at the Fremont City Council Chambers. The presentation is scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. There will be a comment period after the presentation.

Today’s Chronicle article by Carolyn Jones doesn’t cover any new ground. Nothing should be expected out of either the A’s or Fremont until the next session, which is a couple of weeks away. However, the article is good regardless of whether or not there is any news simply because it helps set expectations and exposes much of the positioning behind the scenes.

(Full disclosure: Ms. Jones contacted me for the article. I did not respond in time to contribute.)

Since the very beginning of formal discussions between the two parties, Fremont has had a very consistent stance on the project: cautious optimism. They’re open to the concept and have even expressed a great deal of interest in helping to shape it so that it works in the long run. Nothing’s changed except their growing frustration in the Wolffs’ repeated delays in providing the development application. I alluded to this frustration in the recap for the last study session.

The process is a slow one and isn’t very compatible with the 24-hour news cycle. Readers and commenters (including yours truly, admittedly) have a tendency to jump on every new piece of information to dissect and try to determine which way the wind is blowing. So for those of you looking for a quick approval for an upcoming groundbreaking, you’re not going to get it. If you’re a critic hoping for a quick knockout blow, you won’t see that either. Even when the traffic/transportation study and the EIR come out, the issues that are raised in those documents won’t immediately bring a verdict on the project either. Instead, concessions will be made and a decision will come after much study on whether or not to certify the EIR. Then and only then can they parties proceed to groundbreaking.

One thing’s for certain: this ballpark business is a lot more CSPAN2 at 4:00 a.m. than primetime reality TV.