That’s right, 50 acres. I’m not sure if Chip Johnson’s gone off his rocker. After all, the Chronicle’s Oakland muckraker’s last column was titled, “Oakland mayor – pompous, not politic.” Mayor Dellums has been Johnson’s whipping boy pretty much since he took office, yet Johnson’s newest offering suggests that Dellums could save his reputation and his lackluster tenure by brokering a deal to bring the A’s downtown.
Seriously? This is the same mayor whose January approval rating was 25%. I doubt that it’s gotten significantly better, what with a tax problem, travel expenses scandal, and Dellums’ distant, absentee mayor rep. A baseball stadium and some condos is going to fix that? Oakland residents can’t be that easily fooled.
Notice that I don’t mention – and neither does Johnson mention – voters. We’re still in the dark as to whether or not Dellums will run again, but as I said previously, that’s largely immaterial. The timing is all wrong for Dellums, who pivots about as well as a snail, to crank a deal up before his term expires. To illustrate, let’s go through a theoretical timeline.
- January – MLB Panel recommends that Oakland is the best option, sets a 24-month timeline to complete a ballpark deal
- February/March – Dellums and his task force, which had not decided yet on a specific ballpark site, hold private and public meetings to narrow down the list of four to a specific candidate.
- April – A’s and Oakland agree to exploratory arrangement in which team underwrites EIR study. Start the clock on the EIR, which should take at least 12 months to prepare, probably much longer depending on issues involved
- April – Oakland starts negotiating land acquisitions with current property owners. Process should take the better part of 2 years if eminent domain is not used. (See: Diridon and DC ballpark site acquisitions)
- May/June – Revised zoning and other preparatory steps are started.
- June – Staff provides update on project status, City to decide whether or not to move forward.
- July – City has to decide whether or not to place a referendum on the project. This is especially important if eminent domain is used.
- August – City starts outreach meetings with neighborhood groups and citizens
- October – Staff project update
- November – General election
- April 2011 – Assuming that all of the above steps go well, a Notice of Preparation for the EIR is distributed
- May – EIR is distributed, citizens have 45-60 days to comment and make recommendations
- May/June – City has to decide when to put out ballot measure (if necessary)
- July – Final EIR distributed
- November – Election for ballpark project
Now do you see why I’m bothered that the City presented four sites instead of just one or two? Do just one, and you can cross some of the preparatory steps off the list early. Even if MLB gives a 24-month deadline, it’ll be incredibly difficult to accomplish all of the tasks set forth. The possibility of changing horses midstream is guaranteed to hurt the cause, not help it.
I don’t know where Johnson is getting his information, but 50 acres seems completely out of line. There was talk that the land being sought totaled 20 acres, which is also an arbitrary albeit less offensive number. Whichever one is correct, it appears that MLB is setting the bar rather high when compared to Target Field and AT&T Park, both of which were built with less than 15 acres allocated to them.
The cynic in me thinks that MLB is playing Lucy, always ready to snatch the ball from Charlie Brown as he tries to kick it. It’s nearing 2 a.m., and I’m just thankful that I didn’t knock back a few before reading Chip Johnson’s article. Oakland, if you really want to run this gauntlet, good luck to you. Pardon me while I look away as you run up to the ball.
Update 10:40 a.m.: Just a thought. There is one way the land could balloon up to 50 acres, and that’s if it includes the delay-plagued O29 development. Apparently, Signature Properties has been looking to get rid of it for some time. Wolff and company would have to be able to get it for a song. I’m not even sure if Wolff wants the headache of developing that property.
newballpark.org 
I think Chip, who doesn’t usually do this, is taking Oakland’s word for it. There are a few things that I would consider inaccuracies… First he said that the city had put forth 3 new sites. There are only 2 sites that haven’t been vetted before.
Then, he proposes that one of the old sites turned new is a great idea for reasons of accessibility and development potential. Accessibility, something everyone harped on yesterday as being insufficient to JLS let alone Howard Terminal and extremely expensive to fix… $300 Million BART station or $300 Million street car system? Development of the city’s economic engine for a baseball stadium? Seriously?
So here is the question–what is in it for Wolff and Co. to wait another 3-years or so to get a new ballpark and what iwill be their return for their $500M investment in Oakland? I can’t see it without some additional “development” rights which is maybe where he is coming from.
I think that there is a blanket assumption by many that the financials for Oakland and San Jose are the same to Wolff and Company and that he is willing to drop $500M in either city provided the land is available for a cheap lease and infrastructure improvements are managed by the city. I have a hard time believing this as I feel his ultimate payoff is in franchise value. If this is correct than what would the value of an Oakland A’s franchise in downtown Oakland v. the value of the San Jose A’s in downtown San Jose. Me thinks that the San Jose location would not only increase the value of the franchise over an Oakland location but also move the team from “small market” status and a benefactor of revenue sharing to ultimately a contributor to small market teams; hence there is value to MLB in a San Jose location.
So I think that the one “big” component that is missing from the ballpark sites assessment is economic value to team and economic value to MLB—not all sites are created equal nor are the cities that are in play–
It’s impossible to know how valuable the franchise will be in either location, after building a 400 million dollar facility in one downtown location versus the other. There are advantages and problems in either case. The best way would probably be to present two fully fleshed out plans and solicit season-ticket pre-sales for both (with a full refund to purchasers at the site that loses), but that’s not gonna happen. To suggest as you do, that a new stadium in Oakland would result in a continued state of revenue sharing welfare, while one in San Jose would turn the team into a benefactor, requires a lot more substantive analysis than I’ve seen anyone, including Lew Wolff, offer up. The internet babble about Oakland having an established tradition and greater numbers through centrality, and San Jose having higher household income and whiz bang IPO dollars, is not a resolution to the question.
I agree this is a complex situation. Conventional Wisdom held that the Orioles franchise value would take a hit with the Nationals coming nearby but the opposite has been true. Forbes values the Orioles at $400 Million when they were valued at just below $300 Million before the Nationals became their neighbor. Of course, MLB took steps to make sure that their value was not negatively impacted.
Meanwhile the Expos/Nationals went from a value of about $130 Million to now being worth about $400 Million. Seems that situation has worked itself out to be a positive for both.
I imagine the A’s franchise value will increase in a new stadium in either city. the question is where will it increase more? And I’d agree this requires some serious math. I have a hunch that math has already been done and it won’t be shared with us.
Jeffrey–agree that the math has most likely been done…and won’t be shared with us…although I think that it is safe to say that LW and his ownership group have made it pretty clear where they see the numbers falling….so if MLB says to them to stay in Oakland and invest your $500M there than I guess he can do one of two things…say ok provided I get these additional benefits or he can say I accept it but won’t be part of it and the franchise is put up for sale. If the later happens I would suspect the A’s will be playing in the Coli for a long-long time. Btw—either city is fine from my perspective–but I am not the one proposing to invest the $500M
If everything happened exactly the way it goes in that timeline, that would be a couple of times as fast as the City of Oakland has ever managed to do anything, pretty much ever. Chip’s column today is delusional.
Agree V Smoothe–I feel MLB would be taking a huge risk on even allowing Oakland to re-enter the fray—their track record of execution doesn’t support their recent announcements. That is why I feel there has to be some compensation to Wolff and Company for putting up with another Oakland effort—the one thing that MLB cant do is force him to invest $500M in a city that he isn’t interested in–something needs to sweeten the pot for him—
No, they ruined the Coliseum in RECORD TIME
Nice going V Smoothe. As usual you come in to put out the fire. Thanks for the cold bucket of water. Oakland and Oakland A’s fans thank you for your enthusiasm and support. With friends like you, Oakland doesn’t need enemies. Once the Oakland A’s leave for San Jose, as you’ve assured us in the past, we’ll bring in the Sacramento Rivercats to take their place as you’ve suggested.
Yep, 15 acres is plenty big for the smallest-capacity permanent new ballpark in a century.
Why is MLB asking for a minimum of 20 — are they including parking structures in that?
I’d imagine it might be “all about the culture.” Creating something like Waveland Avenue, Eutaw Street, Yawkey Way.
I’m more convinced now than ever that San Jose is the answer. I’m tired of waiting guys, I want a shovel in the ground.
I think when you compare any site in Oakland vs. Diridon South, you have to take in consideration the future, not just the now. In particular, accessibility through future forms of transit. Diridon South will one day have direct access to both high-speed rail, both LA-SF line and future Altamont/ACE overlay, and BART. This would greatly expand the A’s market in Northern and Central California, thus adding to their franchise value; probably more so than any Oakland site. In the future, you could theoretically be an A’s season ticket holder from Stockton (within 50-minutes/one-hour on ACE), a luxury box owner from Fresno (45-minutes via HSR), in conjunction with the current fan base in southern Alameda County, Santa Clara County, and Tri-Valley area’s. This also doesn’t take into consideration the vast corporate wealth of Silicon Valley (see Cisco), which could further drive up the A’s franchise value.
I agree with you Jesse; let’s get the shovels in the ground sooner rather than later!
Excuse me? I am from Stockton and am currently a season ticket holder. It takes me approximately 1:10 driving in to Oakland. On BART it takes me approximately 1:30. According to the ACE train schedule, the ride from Stockton to San Jose is 2:10. I’m sorry, but Oakland is much more central location for San Joaquin and Sacramento Counties and many parts of Stanislaus counties.
HSR = high speed rail
Bill–your assuming a current Coli location–taking it deeper into downtown Oakland you won’t have the same transportation time schedule–and therefore commute times are going to increase—also SJ Ace schedule could probably be improved upon with transit times reduced if a stadium was built in downtown SJ
HSR will not be coming to Stockton any time soon. ACE at its normal speeds is over 2 hours away. Moving from the Coliseum to downtown will not add that much time to the clock. On BART it’s only 2 stops away. When and if HSR becomes a reality, there is a potential that you might get some business from the Fresno/Merced areas, but you will be losing the Stanislaus, San Joaquin, and Sacramento county area support.
Hey ML–interesting update on the O29 property—what makes it a red herring for a developer?
Your timeline is written to seem as difficult as possible. For example:
There is no “task force,” and it’s hard to believe that wording is an accidental reference to a Dellums administration low point. Here’s a tip: Chip Johnson notwithstanding, don’t make the mistake of assuming that Oakland’s effort hinges on the current Mayor.
Oakland pitched three sites at its press conference, not four…Matier and Ross were wrong. More to the point, the list will be down to one real site fast if/when The Commission report blesses Oakland’s chances.
Everything listed from May/June ’10 through April ’11 is fluff…updates, outreach, decide whether, etc…None of those 6 items delay or advance any other steps…it’s like you inserted an extra year to make all teh subsequent steps seem further away.
And why all the election items? There won’t be an election about an A’s ballpark in Oakland, not in 2011, not ever.
This really reads as though it’s meant to contrast where Oakland is today and where it can be if given a two year MLB window with where San Jose is right now. Which is valid if your argument is that the A’s should go to San Jose simply because it’s further along, as some fans believe. But as an indictment of the “viability” of Oakland’s plans, your timeline is weak, and your bias is showing.
BTW, 50 acres is the figure Oakland gave for the Howard terminal site. Which this website seems content to dismiss as previously discarded. That may be true; however, I’ll note that the Port of Oakland ain’t hardly in the position to be imperious and dismissive the way it was back in the high rollin’ days of ’02.
Ironic as I feel that the timeline is way too aggressive…no vote…something tells me that the $20M hangover from the last sports venture is going to require a vote—once bitten twice shy as they say—
FSU, I don’t mean to rain on your parade. However, I’m all about the realpolitik of the situation and the deal. I encourage you to do the same. Should this get to an advanced planning stage, it will get messy and some obstacles can’t be avoided. You can’t wish them away.
So there’s no task force? What about the “Sports and Entertainment Task Force” created early in the year? The use of the term was not pejorative and I stand by it.
Process is process. You have to slog your way through it, and it’s not pretty. I write about it so that fans can get an appreciation of it. 700-page EIR’s don’t write themselves. And my post is not about viability. It’s about whether or not the body politic has the stomach for it. Oakland now has a strong mayor type of government, so to paraphrase Don Perata, something this big won’t get built without the mayor’s support and effort.
It won’t get built without a plebiscite either. Oakland is pitching the same kind of minimal-investment deal that built AT&T Park, and SF’s plan took a vote. San Jose is making political CYA by putting its proposal in a referendum. Is Oakland somehow above doing this? Do you honestly think that Oakland voters will be so blinded by wanting to keep the A’s in town that they’ll whistle in the dark while the Mayor/Council rubber stamps a deal? Come on now. It nearly took an act of god – perhaps illegal – for Oakland to avoid a vote on O29, and there are still people extremely bitter about it. If a ballpark proposal doesn’t come to a vote in Oakland, it’ll be because if never got that far in the first place.
When I see a quote from a Matson official saying, “Yes, we’ll be happy to cooperate on a ballpark land deal,” I’ll consider Howard Terminal a real option. Until then, it’s a misdirection meant to get people excited about a waterfront ballpark.
Howard Terminal… Come on man. Howard Terminal is not a good spot. In 2001 the cost to build there was $517 Million. Adjust that to today’s dollars and it is $600 Million. The city covers moving port operations, estimated at $30 Million in 2001… that leaves a gap of what? $565 Million?
And as mlb starts to move toward a decision on which city…
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_14005073
The S.F. Giants start meddling.
Bay Area A’s–ironic–are the Giants tipping us off as to which way MLB will go here—seems as if this is a bit premature unless of course the Giants are preparing for the battle near-term. Personally, with the benefits to the unions and construction workers as well as to the city of SJ with the arena as an example I don’t think it will be any problem passing in SJ—
Opposition is part of the political process–many times the minority just yells louder than the majority–
I don’t think this will derail anything in S.J. but it seems as though the purchase of the S.J. Giants was for more than compensation from MLB. The Giants now have a local mouthpiece in Santa Clara County and will use it against the city of S.J. I don’t suspect the Giants know which way MLB will decide but they are gearing up for the fight pending a decision after the ownership meetings in mid January.
Diridon South will one day have direct access to both high-speed rail, both LA-SF line and future Altamont/ACE overlay, and BART. This would greatly expand the A’s market in Northern and Central California, thus adding to their franchise value; probably more so than any Oakland site. In the future, you could theoretically be an A’s season ticket holder from Stockton (within 50-minutes/one-hour on ACE), a luxury box owner from Fresno (45-minutes via HSR), …
Freesno is a big stretch. The average (not peak) speed would have to be 200 mph to meet your criteria, and the fare would be a problem –right now the powers that be are talking about a possible $105 fare from LA to SF. That implies a fare of about $50-$60 from Fresno to SJ. How many people are going to be willing and able to pay $100 to $120 for a round trip ticket to the ballpark, per person? The proverbial family of four would have to pay $400 to $480 for carfare for just one game.
http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_14002777?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com-www.mercurynews.com
“How many people are going to be willing and able to pay $100 to $120 for a round trip ticket to the ballpark, per person?”
Something this team desperately needs, luxury box owners.
From Stockton and Fresno…
I was under the impression that the idea has always been to build a ballpark for the Oakland A’s, not to relocate the Oakland A’s to San Jose. Oakland has two viable sites, with Victory Court being the best in my humble opinion. If it means building a ballpark for the Oakland A’s in the most convenient and esthetically pleasing site to Oakland A’s fans, then we have the responsibility to get this right. The Victory Court site has many advantages over the Diridon site in San Jose.
1) Victory Court is in Oakland thereby assuring that the Oakland A’s will continue to survive as the Oakland A’s. Victory Court is centrally located to the majority of Oakland A’s fans. Most A’s fans come from Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Francisco counties, with Oakland having the most fans of any city.
2) Victory Court offers a pleasing waterfront location with possible boating access to the Oakland Estuary and Lake Merritt not to mention access via water taxis to the Clay Street Ferry Terminal. The Lake Merritt Bart Station is a 1/4 of a mile up Oak Street and the Jack London Square Amtrak Station is less than 1/4 of a mile away. There are already thousands of parking spaces in garages all over Jack London Square, Chinatown, Old Oakland and Uptown.
3) Victory Court will be a walkable ballpark to the Jack London Waterfront District along with neighborhoods along Lake Merritt via the Measure DD improvements at the Lake Merritt Channel. Victory Court will also be accessible to the thousands of new residents in the future Oak to 9th development. In affect, the Oakland Athlethics will have a ballpark accessible to the 80,000 office workers in downtown Oakland, along with access to tens of thousands of residents in neighborhoods like Adams Point, Grand Lake, Crocker Highlands, Haddon Hill, Gold Coast, Chinatown, Old Oakland and Uptown.
4) Victory Court has great bones and plenty of open space with only a few private owners. From the Lake Merritt Channel, West towards Fallon Street, we have a number of parking lots, underutilized light industrial warehouses, a very wide street at Fallon which flows into a fairly large parking lot at Peerless Coffee. I’m sure George Vukasin wouldn’t mind sharing a bit of his parking lot for the sake of his hometown, which he loves dearly.
We have an opportunity to build something very special in Oakland which will solidify our beloved Oakland Athletics in the fabric of our community for the foreseeable future. No more threats of relocation. This will finally be our team to love and support in good times as well as in tough times. They’ll be our Oakland A’s. No more insecurity. No more threats of relocation. We’ll be just like Yankee, Red Sox, Cubs, and Giant fans who have the security of knowing that they’re teams will be there for them, and for their children. We’ll have the security to open our hearts and our wallets to OUR team. We’ll have the enjoyment of watching our team grow with our community and becoming an intrinsic part of our community. Let’s do this! Let’s Go Oakland!