Two weeks ago I found myself in Maryvale, where I spent my lunch hour watching the Brewers host Team Great Britain in a warm-up game leading up to World Baseball Classic pool play. Each of the ten ballparks in the Cactus League had a chance to host one warm-up game on March 8 or 9. Since MLB already had spring training going, they slipstreamed the games into the schedule. 

Maryvale isn’t a sexy neighborhood, so I wasn’t expecting a huge crowd. Yet it was so sparse it almost seemed like someone forgot to get the word out. The American Family Fields staff was on hand as usual, and I parked at a nearby shopping center and walked on as I’ve done in the past. The crowd felt more like a Fall League game than a Spring Training game with much lower stakes.

A week later, I went to Chase Field watch Pool C play between Team Colombia and Team USA. The stakes were much higher this time, as Mexico already advanced, making this game an elimination game. Colombia pitched well enough to stay within striking distance, but Trea Turner had a late home run to push the Americans over the top.

Team USA survived a slugfest with Venezuela and then overwhelmed Cuba, while Japan breezed all the way through to the final. The knockout (playoff) rounds were held in Miami at LoanDepot Park, which was largely full thanks to fans from Latin America and Japan bringing their own brand of fandom to the proceedings. Watching it on TV, it dawned on me that these domes are perhaps the best types of venues for the WBC. As much as I love ballparks old and new, I’ll be the first to admit that Americans are often too caught up in the aesthetic appeal of a ballpark instead of the actual baseball on the field. A six-month regular season will do that. Boring games will do that. I like how the new rules changes are speeding up the pace of games, though it’ll take at least a couple months to understand if they truly work as intended.

The day of the championship game between Japan and the USA, I checked to see what the radio broadcast schedule was as the game was going to start during my evening commute. I learned that there were no terrestrial radio broadcasts. Instead, MLB chose to have Sirius/XM handle the radio side just as Fox and its FS1/FS2 networks covered the TV side. I brought up the TuneIn Radio app and got the 7-day Premium trial, which led me to the WBC broadcast helmed by the always solid Giants play-by-play man Dave Flemming and former A’s first baseman Yonder Alonso as the color commentator. They were doing the international broadcast, which thanks to their familiar voices felt comfortable. Then in the middle of the first inning something strange happened: nothing.

The broadcast cut to the break after the USA’s uneventful first. Instead of the expected commercials from the usual suspects, all I heard was a live mic capturing crowd noise peppered with PA announcements and music. It was a throughly refreshing revelation, so pleasant that when I got home and turned on the TV broadcast on FS1 I quickly muted the TV and listened to the radio stream instead. Tension ratcheted up inning after inning until the classic confrontation between Shohei Ohtani, who was brought in to close for Japan, and Mike Trout, who ended up being the final hitter for the United States. It wasn’t certain that the two famed stars would have the chance to face each other, yet they did in the most dramatic moment possible. Ohtani struck out Trout, cementing his place as the WBC MVP and the best, most unique baseball player in decades.

Throughout the last 3 weeks, the WBC felt unusually underhyped. MLB controls it, operates it, and promotes it inside and outside the United States. MLB doesn’t want to risk its players’ health too much, however, and it fears the WBC outshining the normal operation of the baseball seasons for MLB and other pro leagues. That’s why MLB isn’t considering budging from holding the WBC in March, despite the obvious appeal of holding the final games on a semi-regular basis in the summer, in lieu of the All Star Game and festivities. On the media side, ESPN gave it rudimentary attention and sent reporters, though the coverage wasn’t nearly as much as it would be if ESPN was broadcasting the tournament with its gargantuan promotional machine. The terrestrial radio silence may not seem like much in the 21st Century. But baseball’s a 20th Century sport, and I’m sure there were plenty of people who had no idea about the coverage black hole. For them, the tournament might as well have not happened.

So what you have is an event MLB promoted like crazy to overseas fans in hopes of bringing in some tourist dollars, which is exactly what happened. There were sizable groups of fans from Canada and the United Kingdom, as well as Korea and upstart Australia. As for America, MLB is still of two minds on how to treat the WBC. If you go to MLB’s website now, you’ll see a few mentions of the WBC. It’s not a fixture. It’s strange because like the Spring Training games, WBC games are essentially exhibitions. They matter more to certain audiences, and MLB certainly saw that interest on display. The problem is that MLB has already shifted gears to wrapping up Spring Training and getting ready for Opening Day. They’re in a hurry to show off their “new and improved” product. This pattern is likely to continue in 2026, when the US will host both the WBC and the World Cup. There is absolutely no chance of MLB getting blown away in terms of media attention, so they’ll keep the WBC in March instead of July, which is when the World Cup knockout rounds will occur.

And that’s fine. I came away much more optimistic about baseball than I was last fall. Baseball is in fact not dying, and MLB is trying to evolve despite itself. My optimism has much more to do with baseball transcending borders and oceans, which might be the best outcome of all. I’m a bit wistful knowing that there’s a good chance that the next edition of the WBC will be over-commercialized and overhyped just like every other major sporting event. At least I had three weeks of bliss, on which I will always look back fondly.

This week in Arizona is a bit of a lull. It’s a brief respite between the regular winter activities that started with the Barrett-Jackson auto auctions in January, leading to the WM Open in February, and culminating in the Super Bowl XLVII last Sunday. Having hosted two big games in the last decade, State Farm Stadium is practically a shoo-in for the ongoing Super Bowl rotation. The region’s pleasant winter climate and its ability to host large scale events makes it a top contender for future Super Bowls, assuming they can return to prioritizing the playing surface over extracurricular activities. Even if they can’t, there’s always mention Glendale’s annual place in the College Football bowl season and the upcoming 2024 Final Four.

Lulls come to an end, though, starting tomorrow with the MLB Desert Invitational baseball tournament at multiple Cactus League ballparks in the Valley. Sloan Park in Mesa and Salt River Fields in Scottsdale will each hold doubleheaders Friday and single games Saturday and Sunday, while GCU’s Brazell Field will host games Saturday through Monday. I’ve never seen a game at Brazell, so I’ll catch one this weekend. ASU is not participating in the Desert Invitational, instead hosting San Diego State for a series this weekend at the venerable Phoenix Muni.

As I started looking through the various schedules, I realized that this is my chance to do something I’ve always wanted to do: chart all of the baseball games (college and pro) in the Valley. Sure, the Cactus League is pretty awesome and way ahead of the Grapefruit League because of its accessibility and compactness. Yet there’s other stuff happening here too! What would happen if I put all of those data points and events into the mix?

So I took a couple of evenings this week and put together a table. It shows the sheer number of games in multiple sports happening in the Valley, all no more than an hour drive away from each other. If you’re coming here this spring, you might want to use this as a reference. Just keep the PDF on your phone or tablet. There are no links to ticket buying websites, I’m sure you already know how to do that. Cactus League, GCU and ASU home games, and the return of the World Baseball Classic are represented. Also included are the exhibition games between the national teams and some MLB squads, with every ballpark represented. The table is laid out in a roughly west-to-east format, plus the college teams, basketball, and hockey to the right. Yes, ASU’s new Mullett Arena is present, and while I have some interest in the 5,000-seat barn hosting both the Sun Devils and NHL Coyotes temporarily, I’m not willing to pay NHL-style prices to do it (which they’re doing even for the ASU games).

The World Baseball Classic was cancelled in 2021 due to the pandemic, and postponed last year because of MLB’s lockout. 2023 it would be, then. Opening round play will be held in Japan, Taiwan, Miami, and Phoenix. Japan will host part of the knockout play, while Miami will host the remaining rounds. That means you’ll have a chance to sample a side of WBC with your typical Spring Training trip.

Take a look at the schedule, and consider that this spring wasn’t really possible in the 1993 version of the Cactus League, which had almost none of the current ballparks opened at that point. In 1993 Chase Field was merely a potential ballpark site in Downtown Phoenix. The NFL Cardinals played at Sun Devil Stadium, and Phoenix hadn’t yet stolen the Winnipeg Jets. The funding method for all of the various venues in Maricopa County is controversial to be sure, but it helped boost the region’s profile and cement its place as a premier location for high profile sporting events.

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Notes

1. Daylight Saving Time is on March 12, the same day as the apparently sold out Mexico-United States matchup in the WBC. As an Arizona resident who doesn’t have to observe DST it doesn’t affect me in the slightest. But it might affect your travel plans. You’ve been warned.
2. The University of Arizona in Tucson is not included in the table as it’s two hours away, effectively a day trip. Sadly, there’s no Cactus League action there anymore either.
3. I didn’t complete a Travel Grid for 2023 this season. Why? Once I saw that the schedule format would now have every MLB team play each other throughout the season, the novelty rationale for the Grid melted away. It may come back at some point. I make no promises.
4. Public transit remains wanting here. While Phoenix Metro’s light rail serves Downtown Phoenix, Tempe, and Mesa, it will probably never go to Scottsdale and expansion plans aren’t taking LRT to Maryvale or all the way to Glendale yet. If you’re in Tempe you’ll see streetcar tracks that will eventually run along the south end of the main campus up north to Tempe Town Lake. My advice is to limit your use of East Valley-West Valley Uber/lyft rides as they get expensive. Think of the East and West Valley as similar to SF/Peninsula and the East Bay, pick a side and stay there for a while. On the other hand, Waymo keeps expanding its presence here. Sky Harbor Airport’s Sky Train recently finished a long-awaited expansion to the Rental Car Center west of the airport.

Calling Dibs on the Coliseum

AASEG and the City of Oakland held a ceremony at the Coliseum to celebrate the announcement of the AASEG’s Exclusive Negotiating Agreement over the City’s half of the complex.

The plan is to revitalize the Coliseum area and East Oakland, which went neglected in the wake of the Raiders’ and Warriors’ exoduses, the A’s planned departure in the coming years, and the general deterioration as other area businesses like Walmart left. It’s strange to consider this reversal of fortunes, as not even a decade ago Oakland was heavily promoting a Coliseum City concept anchored by a new Raiders stadium.

AASEG’s concept, absent any fleshing out on their website or a providing real specifics, is effectively a community-based, Black-led, updated version (read: adds affordable housing) of Coliseum City minus the Raiders. Besides the economic boost, the results could yield a WNBA franchise, NWSL team, and a NFL team via expansion. That last part would require the NFL to forgive the City of Oakland for suing it multiple times, no big deal.

Casey Pratt watched the event and noted that the A’s weren’t mentioned at all except for a comment by CM Noel Gallo in the context of the A’s *maybe*  ditching the Howard Terminal plan and coming back to the Coliseum. 

Later, KRON’s Stephanie Lin caught up with new Oakland mayor Sheng Thao and asked her about the A’s. Thao’s comment suggested that the City hasn’t made much progress with the A’s since she won the election last November.

Online, the response to AASEG’s project is mixed. While there is nearly universal support for revitalizing the neighborhood, there’s already concern from A’s supporters that Howard Terminal is now on the back burner, which I predicted would happen last fall. To that I say, relax A’s fans. These ENA announcements are designed to gin up support while distracting from the hard work ahead, most of which won’t be publicized. A’s fans got spoiled by the city’s fairly frequent updates on HT during the Schaaf administration. It kept fans’ attention  as intended. The downside of that approach is that it minimizes the simple fact that the true end product is a deal. It’s like separating the wheat from the chaff.

Consider that since 2010, Oakland has entered several ENAs with multiple teams and developers. All included multibillion-dollar projects. And in the end, none of them actually built anything thus far. The Raiders were supportive of Coliseum City at first, but only if it was done on their terms. The A’s had an ENA when they entered an agreement to purchase Alameda County’s half of the Coliseum. That ENA expired with no further action. The city entertained a bidding process for their half, ultimately deciding on AASEG last fall because it apparently had bigger, more compatible goals. The only thing I can say for certain is that whatever gets built at the Coliseum will look nothing like what AASEG or the City is dreaming up. Why? Because reality has a way of resetting your objectives.

Throughout the bidding process and the slog that led to the ENA, it didn’t seem that anyone in the East Bay was willing to ask some very simple questions:

1. What happens to the business plan – and the dedicated NFL stadium/convention center land – if these pro sports franchises don’t materialize?
2. What is the priority list and sequencing involved?
3. What if third parties cause interruptions to AASEG’s plans?

Third parties, plural? You might think I’m only referring to the A’s. Au contraire, my friends. You see, the ENA only includes the original Coliseum complex with the stadium, arena, and parking. Years ago, the City chose to buy some of the adjacent land such as the Malibu and HomeBase lots. The City then negotiated separately with the Oakland Roots/Soul, the upstart USL Championship men’s soccer team and planned women’s side. Their plan is to build a temporary stadium on the Malibu lot, which would serve as a good venue until the clubs are ideally promoted to MLS and NWSL respectively. AASEG may want to use the currently vacant land for their own construction staging. Since the Malibu/HomeBase sites are not covered in the AASEG/Coliseum ENA, it’s hard to know how they can make that ask.

AASEG’s plan also includes its own men’s and women’s soccer clubs. How could Oakland field two or four lower division soccer clubs when they only recently decided to show interest in soccer? Beats me.

I’m glad the East Bay is showing interest in soccer, though let’s be brutally honest about how that came about. Soccer is filling a vacuum created by the departures of NBA/NFL and perhaps MLB. It’s scavenging the wounded East Bay sports fan populace. WNBA/NWSL less so due to the fact there are no current teams in the Bay and women’s sports has its own market niche. The Roots are in their honeymoon period and are looking to cement their place in the NorCal sports market. USL teams like Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego, and Las Vegas can achieve promotion to MLS by getting a stadium deal (20,000-seat modern SSS). Or Oakland could keep itself a lower division club like Orange County or Monterey Bay by staying in a smaller or temporary stadium. One choice is expensive, the other has limited growth potential. 

For any Oakland soccer club, it’s ironic that John Fisher’s San Jose Earthquakes stands in the way of MLS promotion. So would Sacramento if they get the financial stability they need to support a promoted Republic side. MLS would also have to grant a third NorCal team as no other market has more than two. MLS currently has 29 teams with St. Louis debuting this season. There’s a limit on remaining slots, all of which come with a stadium requirement.

The NFL stadium under discussion would also be used as a convention center. That probably  means it would be domed, the better for attracting multiple types of events. It’s too expensive to build a stadium in anticipation of being awarded an expansion franchise, so you have to wonder how long AASEG will get for that team to materialize with all the obstacles that will face Oakland. Beyond that, the exercise feels like a lot of late 20th century thinking. Domes are indeed flexible and adaptable, but they’re also expensive to operate and require constant maintenance because they are more complex than outdoor stadia. I moved from Scottsdale to Glendale last summer, and while we’re getting ready for the madness that is Super Bowl week, I’m also aware that in three weeks State Farm Stadium will host a home and garden show on the stadium floor made possible by its rollout grass tray field. After that there are a few stadium concert tours coming through and car auction events this year. Glendale isn’t utilizing the full stadium more than a couple dozen times per year including Arizona Cardinals games.

All of these factors lead me to believe that the only given in this process is that AASEG will not resolve all these issues along with their general business deal terms in the 18-month ENA period. They’ll request and be granted an extension in hopes that the A’s resolve their outstanding Howard Terminal issues and complete their own exit strategy from the Coliseum. However, the A’s lease runs through 2024 and they already admitted they can’t move into a new ballpark at HT before 2027. Since they control half the property through their agreement with Alameda County and they’re on schedule to finish the debt service payments in 2026, the A’s have veto power over any development plans at the Coliseum whether they include one, two, or three new sports franchises. 

Or no sports franchises for that matter. The ENA means having to negotiate with the A’s at some point, if not right away. And who knows what will happen to Howard Terminal in the meantime? In Oakland, the struggle for relevance remains.

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P.S. – Much of the media coverage painted the ENA as a “deal.” No, the ENA is the period when a deal is worked out or, often in Oakland’s case, when a deal isn’t worked out. I’ve been privy to many contract negotiations between private parties (corporations). Only in pro sports does a party publicize an intention to enter a contract. It would be helpful if the media doesn’t puff this up more than it is. It’s a step, not the destination.

P.P.S. – London, a metro that has twice the population of the Bay Area, has 17 professional soccer teams. All are associated with specific neighborhoods. That very concept seems anathema to American pro sports’ regional tendencies, but if Oakland can somehow achieve some of that neighborhood galvanization effect (and the Roots are so far), it’s a cultural win. I also wanted that for the A’s a while back, but Oakland keeps thinking bigger for some reason.

In light of recent political developments in Oakland (Sheng Thao wins Oakland mayoral race) and Las Vegas (Steve Sisolak loses gubernatorial re-election), I have some thoughts: thread 1/7

I thought it was foolish for anyone to handicap either city’s chances of a ballpark deal for the A’s. This week’s news doesn’t sway me at all. For either Oakland or Vegas it’s a tough path to a deal like what the A’s are seeking (public infrastructure, private development). 2/7

Both Thao and NV governor-elect Lombardo ran against the policies of their predecessors. That doesn’t mean death for an A’s ballpark, but it seems likely to be de-emphasized based on their stated platforms. Both winners have outlined greater priorities in their campaigns. 3/7

KC unveiled its $2 Billion downtown ballpark proposal, which looks like a slightly modernized, transplanted Kauffman Stadium with some ancillary development. It’s backed by the Royals’ new owner and the KC business community. 4/7

Royals’ proposal is $2 B. Howard Terminal – $12 B. Royals expect a sales tax extension approval. The A’s want to use real estate sales. KC’s subsidy is direct, Oakland’s is indirect. Note: You could fit the entire $FTX estimated consumer loss of $8 Billion into that gap. 5/7

Billy Beane was made Special Advisor to John Fisher last week. Don’t be surprised if Beane is assembling a team to purchase the franchise from Fisher in case both locations stall out. Beane’s RedBall SPAC was liquidated in August after it failed to make any major acquisitions. 6/7

For better or worse, Beane is essentially the face of the franchise at this point. Value associated with the team is wrapped up in him. So whether Fisher tries to get any development over the line by spending or he gives up and sells, Billy has to be part of the package deal. 7/7 F

It’s strange being an A’s fan these days, isn’t it? Between the lockout, the unceremonious dumping of star players, a team whose only goal these days is to get the next #1 draft pick (not guaranteed because of a new draft lottery), and empty Coliseum crowds night after night, we’re in a bad, bad way. Comparisons to “Major League” have never been more apt. The only hope on the distant horizon is the promise of Howard Terminal bringing stability and relevance back to the A’s and the East Bay.

The slog of making Howard Terminal a reality became clearer on Thursday, as the SF BCDC (Bay Conservation and Development Commission) approved the de-designation of the 56-acre waterfront parcel near downtown Oakland from Port Priority Use, which allows the A’s to further pursue their $12 Billion ballpark mega-development there. There’s still a long way to go before ground can be broken, but removing PPU was a crucial step which isn’t easily done despite the seemingly overwhelming 23-2 vote. Development of the land is still conditional pending the A’s obtaining a permit, a process that will incur more rigorous review when the time comes. No date is scheduled for BCDC review yet, as the next steps are to be taken by the City of Oakland, other state agencies, and the courts.

From the BCDC’s standpoint, the approval allowed the “hot potato” that is Howard Terminal to be passed back to the City, which will vote CM Noel Gallo’s proposal to place the project on the November ballot as an advisory vote. Gallo argues that the citizens deserve to give their say publicly, while opponents say that such a measure is a waste of time, never mind that the City Council just approved about a dozen ballot measures for November. Among those measures is a controversial one that will allow non-citizen residents of Oakland vote on the OUSD board. Perhaps they could extend the non-citizen logic to all Alameda County residents voting on the ballpark? (Kidding.) The best way to go would be to let Oakland voters decide on a finished project whenever it’s ready, which is not going to be this November. That wouldn’t make the A’s braintrust happy, but it would at least allow the citizens to decide on a sports project, which has been documented ad nauseam, hadn’t been the case previously.

After the advisory vote question is resolved (or not), the City and the A’s just might be able to nail down the details of the development agreement. The deadline for to happen is either the November election or January, when Libby Schaaf’s successor and multiple new council members take office. Previously I predicted that Howard Terminal will have an impact on the election. It hasn’t yet, though election season is still young. The filing deadline for candidates is August 12, with three current Council members (Loren Taylor, Sheng Thao, Treva Reid) in the running plus a slew of others. As a midterm election with several public offices and measures in play, turn out should be brisk with or without an additional ballpark measure.

Would the A’s dare call their negotiations off if the ballot item, even an advisory one, were added in November? Over the last three years the A’s had no qualms turning up the heat when they had the choice, from playing hardball with with last summer’s term sheet to calling the BCDC vote key in their #HowardTerminalOrBust campaign. Every time, the City, Port, and State agencies managed to extend the game by deferring an important decision to the future or changing the terms enough to appear inscrutable. In baseball terms it’s akin to fouling off two-strike pitches.

But enough of the hacky sports analogies. The worst thing we can do in trying to communicate this extremely complex project is to try to boil it down to an at-bat, an inning/game/season. Those are all fairly linear affairs with simple to understand results that can be easily printed on a scoreboard or standings table. What Oakland is dealing with now is multi-faceted and subject to so many externalities that it can be hard to describe the players in terms of roles. Take MLB and commissioner Rob Manfred, for instance. In the game analogy, what is Manfred? The crew chief umpire? A dugout manager? Or a front office presence like Billy Beane? And what is the BCDC? One of the outfield umps they use for the postseason or the video review team in New York?

Anyway, it’s all kind of silly except for something I’ve noticed over the last 9-12 months. A pattern has emerged from how these deliberating bodies act. As much or as little as these individuals want to keep the last major pro team in Oakland, what they don’t want to do is be blamed for the last major pro team leaving. Some time ago, I heard an unsourced story emanating from within Oakland that indicated that the pols there are mostly interested in keeping conversations going to keep teams in town – and that was while the Raiders and Warriors were still at the Coliseum. As for the actual dealmaking part, they’re gun-shy because public funding is a third rail issue within city limits. Sure, there are claims and counterclaims about how much funding will be required, the “but for” nature of the funding, etc. The simple fact of the matter is that the off-site infrastructure (train fences and bridges, curb ramps and sidewalks, signage and lighting) will be funded by one or more bond issues. The danger is that, as is often the case with big public works projects, the revenue required to pay the back the bonds will be insufficient to start. You might say, that’s impossible, this will be a smash hit, and you may be correct. It isn’t guaranteed, not in the slightest. 

If the real estate market undergoes a correction like 2008, it will severely impact the ability to pay back those bonds. And the thing that has always concerned me about this project is that no one really has a handle on how much the off-site infrastructure will cost. I’ve heard $200 million, $380 million, $500 million, $700 million, and now EOSA’s FUD is talking a cool $1 Billion. That number will continue to climb rightly or wrongly because it’s not being discussed publicly. You might think it’s worth it, and that’s a valid opinion. I’m just saying it should be hashed out. Not in private, not in closed session. In public. If Oakland is going to do this right and not repeat the mistakes of the past, it can’t just leave it to the Council. Those saying voters can simply choose not to re-elect whoever made the bad decision apparently never heard of closing the barn door after the cows escaped. Did you watch the beginning of the BCDC meeting, where all of the commissioners disclosed who they had conversations with on Howard Terminal? They mentioned everyone, from the building trades to the longshoremen/EOSA and of course, the A’s. That should be the case for all discussions on a project worth $12 Billion. Is good governance not bigger than baseball? If not, it should be. It’s not enough to Git ‘Er Dun. They have to get it done right. And so far any promises to that effect have mostly been lip service.

Hi there. It’s me, the occasional blog proprietor. I haven’t gone anywhere as I’ve been mostly frustrated by MLB’s labor situation and baseball’s flagging status as America’s pastime. Through that lens I watched the Howard Terminal ballpark process take multiple steps forward and back, each moment of doubt cancelling out hard-earned legal and procedural victories.

Chief among those victories was the certification of the final environmental impact report, which occurred on February 18. I thought that opponents would file a lawsuit before the certification. Instead they took the legal window after the certification to file their lawsuit, though if you were curious you saw previews in the numerous critical comments by constituent groups prior to the certification.

Whether or not you were following this closely, you had to know that the filing of lawsuit challenging the certification was a foregone conclusion. Legislation backed by the A’s allows for such challenges to be wrapped up in 270 days instead of dragging out the process for years. What’s not a foregone conclusion is how this will all play out. The only other sports facility that benefited from the CEQA streamlining provision was the Clippers’ upcoming arena in Inglewood. That legal battle lasted four months, until Steve Ballmer literally bought the Forum, whose owner, MSG, filed the complaint. Ballmer’s purchase ended the legal challenge. When you’re talking about millions of dollars, sometimes it takes a billionaire to end the debate. Is Fisher capable of that?

That buyout scenario is impossible in Oakland. Beyond the limits of John Fisher’s legendary thriftiness, unlike Inglewood, the two warring parties aren’t both in the sports and entertainment business. Their industries are fundamentally different, making any kind of buyout incredibly complicated and, in all likelihood, not comprehensive enough for either party’s satisfaction. Moreover, the working Port interests (shipping and transportation) are affected by a rezoned Howard Terminal in different ways – some acute, others long-term. One aspect of the lawsuit that hasn’t been discussed yet is that it is missing Union Pacific, whose rail line runs right down the Embarcadero next to Howard Terminal, and whose general counsel argued vociferously against the project. A’s President A’s President Dave Kaval indicated that more lawsuits are forthcoming. UPRR is clearly the next candidate to file by the Monday deadline.

EOSA is looking for $12 Billion in this legal pursuit, a curious number because the economic impact of Howard Terminal is ALSO supposed to be $12 Billion. Obviously, the two don’t cancel each other out in the modern world of overinflated economic impact claims. The City and Port as governmental entities keep trying to mediate the situation and convince the industrial entities that there is room for both a working port and redevelopment along the waterfront. That may or may not be a losing battle, as the two sides prepare for entrenched warfare over the next nine months or more. 

On a YouTube post, Brodie Brazil attempted to discuss Port economics in an admittedly shallow fashion, to which I pointed out that the Port isn’t only measured by shipping containers. Perhaps it’s time for the City and Port to fully discuss the future of the Port. Is it in actuality a boutique version of an industrial port that only accepts containers? Is there room to deal with other types of cargo, which shipping interests want to expand but West Oakland community groups oppose due to environmental concerns? Already, coal exports from Utah were nixed. If sand and gravel don’t happen either, that starts to effectively limit the Port’s opportunities to containers and vehicles/equipment that don’t go to SoCal. The Port was bypassed during much of 2020 when it made more financial sense to queue offshore for San Pedro and Long Beach instead of going 300+ miles to an underutilized Oakland, so Danny Wan and his staff are fully aware of what could happen if they pigeonhole themselves. And it isn’t just about what the purpose of the Port of Oakland is. Hundreds of millions of dollars were invested over the past 20+ years to take over the decommissioned Army Base, repurpose much of the property for Port purposes, and provide support for many of the smaller companies that do business there. How much does that investment matter? Does the Port get scaled back even further over time? How do the agricultural customers that depend on Oakland adjust as their closest, best export facility faces transformation or increased competition? 

Too much Port talk? There will be plenty more in the coming months. If you want to read more about what the A’s and Oakland are facing, take a look at the correspondence at the project website. For now, let’s talk baseball and ballparks.

Here’s the thing that has always puzzled me about the Howard Terminal initiative. The A’s brass knew 20 years ago that this would be a long slog and they kept at it anyway when they started the HT gambit in earnest in 2018. They got a reprieve when their streamlining legislation held up in court, limiting the legal challenge to 270 days after EIR certification. The problem with that is that it condenses the negotiation period with multiple opponents (EOSA, UPRR, others to come) to that 270-day period. All of those parties are going to exact a price for the A’s project either in terms of money or time. Since time is money, these negotiations threaten to push out the groundbreaking and opening dates past 2027, possibly long past 2027. Now that much of the project’s decision-making is outside the City’s and Port’s purview, there’s less incentive to make the deal work by the BCDC and SLC. Think of it this way: If you live and work in Sacramento or San Diego, how much does Oakland’s civic pride and baseball team matter to you? It’s a big state. If the A’s leave California, the state will still have four MLB franchises and three iconic ballparks. The City and Port still have to work out the development agreement, but decisions by other agencies could gum up the works as the BCDC’s Seaport Advisory Committee did two weeks ago when they recommended against the project moving forward.

One question I’ve heard more frequently recently is: Did the A’s propose Howard Terminal specifically because they knew it would be difficult to get approval? Fisher is a Bay Area native, and much of the new money partners are based in the Bay, so despite my well-known misgivings over the project, I’ll give Fisher the benefit of the doubt regarding his initial intentions. I’m sure he and his people truly believe in the transformative nature of the project. Heck, I believe it too, though I don’t know if there’s been enough discussion over what “transformative” means besides providing a ballpark, some market-rate housing, and expanding Downtown Oakland. The EIR was certified as a project-level EIR, which limited its scope. It will get picked apart as the opponents claim it should be a program-level EIR, far more expansive that originally envisioned. A key issue that will come up in the negotiations or in court is how on February 3 the A’s submitted a letter in support of the EIR alternative that eventually approved, which included the six-lane vehicular bridge that will connect the development and designated ballpark parking to the rest of Downtown Oakland. For some reason, the A’s did not publicly support this alternative until two weeks before the certification. The reason why was not given, but I suspect it had to do with the A’s not choosing not to commit to the funding of that aspect, which will run into the nine figures and will be borne by the City, which is searching for federal and state grants to make it happen. If it’s built, the bridge will be one of the first things to go up, even before the ballpark. Again, this threatens to push out groundbreaking and opening of the ballpark while also pulling from whatever limited public resources are available for off-site infrastructure. 

This much is certain: Fisher, like most of his other stadium endeavors, has a hard limit of what he’s willing to spend. If you read the reports out of Vegas, the A’s have a set budget for what they want to spend on land there, apparently $150 million or so. They plan the use the same recipe they’re using in Oakland, with proceeds from entitlements funding a ballpark. What’s unclear is how much better the Vegas deal has to be to make the A’s leave. It sounds incredibly crass due to how it disregards the rich history of A’s baseball in Oakland, but if you take into account how Fisher is willing to burn down both the team and the fanbase to get what he wants, it’s a natural progression. “Howard Terminal or Bust” is more than a slogan. With the Coliseum declared not viable, it’s the only hope for A’s baseball in Oakland. It didn’t have to be that way.

The Raiders declared their move to Vegas before Opening Day 2017. The City of Oakland, in its infinite wisdom, took the Raiders and the NFL to court again. And they lost, again. They’re taking the current challenge all the way to the Supreme Court, hoping that the conservatively-tilted court will rule in their favor. Don’t worry though, the lawsuit was taken on contingency so it isn’t costing the City anything. Imagine that instead of tilting at windmills, the City decided to support the one team staying in Oakland and gave the A’s all the benefits provided by the Coliseum City project’s EIR. By the time the Raiders left after the 2019 season, the A’s could have started building a ballpark next to the Coliseum without worrying about the SLC, BCDC, EOSA, or UPRR. There would’ve been a groundswell of support and, if they got something designed and approved in the requisite lead time for such projects, a ballpark could’ve opened in 2023. That’s right, next year. Instead, we’re talking about whether they can break ground in 2024. That’s where we are, well past the debate of the perfect as the enemy of the good. If Oakland’s fate is to lose all of its major sports franchises, it’s because it couldn’t see the opportunities for what they were: matters of timing and luck. If that happens, I will be immeasurably sad. Not as sad as people who reside in the East Bay, but sad nonetheless. Because Oakland had something good in its grasp and is choosing to throw it away. 

Christmas is coming early for yours truly. For me it started with this comment I made after watching Zennie Abraham’s recent discussion with Mike Jacob of PMSA.

Sure enough, this afternoon the City of Oakland announced that the Final EIR will be released tomorrow, December 17. As Jacob noted, it’s customary for municipalities to release such docs on Fridays, and since two of the next three come right before holidays, it had to be tomorrow or 2022. So we’ll get 3,500 pages, which will include the accrued comments from the Draft EIR cycle. Apparently it was decided that despite numerous protestations, the City would not recirculate the Draft EIR to elicit additional comments. 

Now we are approaching the point where the rubber meets the road. It all comes down to what it will take to get this EIR certified. The A’s were able to get CEQA streamlining approved in August after a favorable court ruling. After all parties – businesses, community, other public agencies – review the Final EIR, they’ll get to comment for another brief period. Then come the agency approvals, followed by the certification and the development agreement between the City/Port and the A’s. That last part is the deal to be struck between the parties: how will it be phased, which items are prioritized first, who pays for what, etc.

Here’s a cheat: Friday’s drop is not the Cliffs Notes version of the Final EIR as it’s 3,500 pages combined. However, if you go through the comments at the project website and combine them with the Draft EIR, you’ve got about two-thirds of the Final EIR. Not interested? Well then, you’re probably not interested in the Final EIR’s 3,500 pages either. I understand the desire to have everything distilled into simple passages, that’s part of why blogs like this exist. This time, I’m not going to let you off easy. I will give you two items that are certain to be at the top of the punch list for Howard Terminal.

The least sexy part of this project is the building of bridges over the railroad tracks, bridges that are a required mitigation. I tweeted about this in November.

The bridge pictured is L-shaped and runs south from Brush Street, over the tracks, and turns west onto Embarcadero West to the parking lots and garages to be constructed near the ballpark. Federal regulations require that there is at least 30 feet of vertical clearance above the active tracks, which makes the bridges have fairly steep approaches from either end. It’s steep enough that the bridges don’t conform to pedestrian standards, so they’re not likely to have sidewalks. Instead, the one designated safe pedestrian crossing will be at Jefferson, where a ADA compliant bridge with proper ramps will take fans from the ballpark to the transit hub and other points north to downtown. It’s possible that fans could cross the tracks at grade, but Union Pacific and other rail companies are fighting to have all of Embarcadero West fenced off to prevent people from chancing it. They’re even arguing that the scope of the project EIR should extend past the lot boundaries due to spillover impacts, which could introduce additional mitigation measures.

The irony of the whole situation is that the 4-lane vehicular bridge is not considered enough to handle gameday car traffic, so an at-grade crossing (probably at Market Street) would still be necessary. If you want to get a feel for what that bridge would be like, the Hegenberger overpass over the tracks near the Coliseum carries six lanes of traffic and prohibits pedestrians on part of it. As for the capacity of the planned pedestrian bridge, BART has thoughts:

When I explained previously that two-thirds of the Final EIR was already in the Draft version and the comments, I left out the missing part: the responses to the comments. Now that I’ve spent several weeks digesting the comments, I’m ready for the responses. I advise you to wear long pants, because we’re about to head into the weeds.