Category Archives: Owners

06.16.11
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Redevelopment is only mostly dead

Update 6/16 10:50 AM – Governor Brown has vetoed both of the main budget bills, AB 98 and SB 69. The veto came as Brown has been is discussions with Republicans over tax extensions, which were half of his inaugural budget solution. The GOP has given no quarter on these taxes, which apparently has forced Brown’s hand. The trailer bills, such as the twin redevelopment bills, are still on Brown’s desk being held back by the Democrats for the time being. They are important for funding the “cuts” half of Brown’s budget plan, so don’t expect them to go away.

At one point during the current legislative session, there were at least a dozen bills having to do with redevelopment reform. In the end, the bills that prevailed were largely influenced by Governor Jerry Brown. With AB 26 and 27 passing and almost guaranteed approval by the governor, the only thing left that can save redevelopment as we know it is a lawsuit (or 400). A successful legal challenge by cities and RDA’s would completely upend the just completed budget process, since the budget is dependent on $1.7 billion in money flowing from RDA’s to the state.

The way this works is that as of October 1, all redevelopment agencies (city or county) would be dissolved. Any projects under contract before January 1, 2011 would continue to have tax increment (now simply named property taxes) as an ongoing funding source. Anything agreed to after January 1 is subject to review in order to determine whether any bond issues violate the spirit of the law.

In addition, redevelopment agencies could be reconstituted if they can perform their activities while taking care of their ongoing debt and these new payments. If they can’t, a successor agency will be appointed whose mission is to collect the these “excess” property taxes and send it to school districts and the like. Cities can apply to reconstitute or create new RDA’s via the mechanism described in AB 27, but they are bound to the aforementioned property tax revenue distributions.

The Merc’s Tracy Seipel reports that the City of San Jose’s share for the next fiscal year is $62 million, and $15 million per year after that. That’s going to be extremely difficult for San Jose to pull off because tax increment revenues have been so poor for the last several years that there’s been little excess to use for new projects. SJRA’s practice of landbanking has also tied up funds in real estate purchases, which have allowed SJRA to act semi-speculatively when it comes to encouraging new projects. Many cities practice this, few to the extent San Jose does. Now it appears that much of the landbanked property will have to be sold to cover these new payments, not to mention any shortfalls that might occur if the property tax receipts tank.

Remember that in December, Lew Wolff renegotiated the price of the Airport West property down to $89 million, a reflection of the depressed real estate market. Wolff doesn’t have to pay until 2015. I suspect that he may have no choice but to accelerate the purchase, if only to prevent the state from forcing the city to sell another piece of land Wolff covets, such as Diridon. It may be that the creation of SJDDA insulates the city somewhat, but my understanding of the bill language is that efforts to circumvent these new powers and responsibilities could turn into an ugly tug-of-war over dollars and dirt. San Jose’s moves aren’t nearly as egregious as what’s been squirreled away in LA, but if I were Wolff or a board member of SJDDA I wouldn’t rest easy until I knew how legal the new joint powers authority was via a court ruling. There seems to be a simple solution for Wolff if he wants his ballpark in San Jose: PAY UP. (BTW, you know what else probably costs around $89 million? The Fairmont SF.)

Oakland’s situation is different in that it has much more bonding capacity and property tax revenues in several districts are good. However, it will be difficult for ORA or a successor agency to round up the money needed for Victory Court. As I noted yesterday, ORA is buying the Henry J. Kaiser Convention Center for $29 million just so that the city can balance its budget. Other properties, including the Fire Training Center, were bought under similar circumstances. Those kinds of quickfixes won’t be available for much longer, especially if the lion’s share of excess property taxes ORA collects will have to go to Peralta CCD and Oakland School District (my guess: $15-25 million for the first year, $5 million annually thereafter).

The last obstacle in Brown’s quest to kill redevelopment is a legal one, which has been been telegraphed by cities and their lobbying groups for months. Their biggest problem is that so far, pro-redevelopment’s solutions have been predicated on RDA’s voluntarily sending money to the state and education as they get it. It’s kinda difficult to base a budget on voluntary payments, don’t you think? And as long as they keep up with the rhetoric about this legislation and Brown’s efforts being “unconstitutional” they’re setting themselves up for a big loss. They may prevail on technical legal terms, but even if they do it doesn’t bode well for the state, cities or counties. The budget was passed strictly on party lines, with very little give on display and numerous battles to come before Brown has to make a decision. We’re getting to the point where it’s time to start thinking about working in a post-redevelopment era. Municipalities that can’t make such a transition are in danger of being left behind.

06.15.11
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Wolff & investor group to sell SF Fairmont

After an attempt to convert part of the Fairmont San Francisco into condos was derailed by objections by the local hotel workers union, the owners of the hotel, who include Lew Wolff and Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, have decided to sell the property.

The hotel was bought in 1998 by the same group as part of a portfolio of Fairmont hotels located in SF, Dallas, and New Orleans. The group also included members of the Fisher family and former Pepsi/Apple CEO John Sculley. Wolff and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal had partnered previously on the Fairmont San Jose.

Wolff said this about the state of the hotel:

“We think it’s time for a single owner to revisit the future of this area,” Wolff said. “Maybe they actually can do better than we did. They certainly couldn’t do any worse.”

The pro-Oakland crowd might take this as a sign that Wolff may be willing to sell the A’s if he found himself at a similar dead end. I wouldn’t bank on it. Compared to owning a hotel, owning a baseball team is a couple orders of magnitude more prestigious and expensive, with the potential payoffs that much greater as well. Wolff is in the process of divesting himself of hotels acquired over the past 20 years, there will always be other hotels and opportunities to buy. An MLB franchise? Well, the collective of owners is called The Lodge for a reason. Teams aren’t commodities. The general public typically doesn’t remember hotel owners. They most definitely remember team owners for good or ill.

06.14.11
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KBWF May ratings plummet in SF market, rise in SJ

95.7 Sportsradio’s ratings took a 33% dive from 0.9 in April to 0.6 in May in the SF-Oakland market. Conversely, they rose 33% in San Jose from 0.6 to 0.8.

Ratings for the twin KNBR’s have stayed steady. As for still-in-receivership KTRB, it’s possible that their AM license may be turned back in to the FCC, a rarity in the business.

Going back to KBWF, it looks like Dan Dibley was brought in to cohost with the temporary guys in the morning/mid-morning, with the idea that he’d get his own show or cohost at some point. I think it’s time to take the training wheels off and let him do his thing. While they’re at it, bring in the “permanent” local talent.

06.13.11
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Time to band together

Athletics Nation’s resident raconteur, emperor nobody, posted a beautiful plea to A’s fans and Bud Selig in the wee hours this morning. A Facebook page was also created named “Hey Bud, PleA’se stop the TeA’se” whose purpose is to spread the message. The message? It’s time for Selig to make a decision and lead. Whether the future is in Oakland or San Jose matters less than the idea that there is a future for the A’s and A’s fans.

In the emperor’s inimitable way, he asks us to be indomitable:

Yes, the Giants are holding it all up, I get that.  Yes, Oakland’s “Victory Court” Environmental Impact Report (EIR) is proceeding at a speed somewhere between that of a glacier and Bengie Molina running out a triple, I get that too.  Yes, in Bud’s mind his hands are tied, so he has gone into a sort of administrative fetal position on this matter, all curled up with his thumb is his mouth — or some other convenient orifice of choice.  Be all that as it may, there’s no cavalry coming to shake him back to sentience and make him bring leadership to a difficult and distasteful set of circumstances.  I hate to say it to you, but the A’s fanbase — the group of people who form the natural constituency of concern here — has been whittled down pretty significantly.  So if you’re looking through your binoculars to see if the cavalry is approaching to save the day — or at least to start some shit so the real players in the drama can feel the heat and act accordingly — I’d suggest you lay the spyglass down and refer to your nearest mirror.  Because that’s where the cavalry is gonna come from, if it’s to make the scene at all in time to keep this franchise from circling the Eternal Drain of Irrelevance and Depredation.

More details about the movement will be unveiled on Chris Townsend’s show at 3 PM. It’s time for real accountability. It’s time for a decision. I’m onboard with this movement and have liked the page. How about you?

06.10.11
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Gammons and Rosenthal weigh in on Beane, Oakland

Peter Gammons held court on KNBR’s morning show (MP3), talking about Billy Beane, the two managers named Bob, and the team’s economic predicament. Gammons has never been one to be particularly critical of Beane, so as expected he blamed Beane’s lack of success over the last five years on the A’s status as a low revenue, have-not franchise. When Brian Murphy challenged this by giving the Giants’ (and anti-Wolff/Fisher) narrative that the ownership should spend more because it is the 4th richest in baseball, Gammons replied:

Because nobody goes to the ballpark, there are no TV and radio rights. They’re not gonna lose their shirts. The Oakland A’s either have to move or be (contracted)… They can’t exist in a dump. There’s no chance of succeeding there. When Peter Magowan built PacBell he changed the market forever. Now, it was always a great baseball market. The Giants were always a really good franchise, but when they had those cold nights at Candlestick it wasn’t always a lot of fun. But they changed everything. I still think the Giants are one of the top five teams in the business.

San Francisco is a huge market. Oakland is not. The ballpark is in shambles and it’s in a bad neighborhood. People aren’t gonna go there. There’s no reason for wealthy people to give enough money so that they finish .500 and still lose money.

On this site we’ve occasionally discussed how AT&T Park has adversely affected the A’s. What surprises me is how Gammons so succinctly nailed that point when much of the local media have generally turned a blind eye to it. It’s not about hardcore fans. It’s casual fans. Regardless of how many seats are tarped over and what discounts are available, casual fans don’t come out to A’s games – at least not en masse. And when the A’s suck, there’s little hope for casual fans to show up. They know there’s a scene at China Basin and a buzz around the Giants.

Ken Rosenthal wrote a different take on Beane, wondering how long Beane will want to put up with his annual Sisyphean task. Unlike Gammons, Rosenthal doesn’t hold Beane above reproach. But he does point out the problem all low revenue teams have that we’ve gone over repeatedly:

All GMs swing and miss; it’s the nature of the beast (and not all of those deals appeared to be misses initially). The problem in Oakland — and Tampa Bay and other low-revenue markets, for that matter — is that big misses are almost catastrophic. Low-revenue clubs, unlike their big-money brethren, can’t spend their way out of mistakes.

It makes me wonder if the best way for the A’s to compete is to tank a few seasons to get high draft picks, as the Rays did unintentionally. Frankly, it’s depressing to think about. Rosenthal doesn’t offer any solutions, doesn’t mention San Jose once. I know this much. If the A’s don’t go on a big run towards the end of the season it’s gonna take the shine off Moneyball the movie. At least for me.

Updated 12:12 PM – Gammons also calls Wrigley Field “a dump” and similarly puts Tom Ricketts in a tough spot since he’ll have to go out of pocket to fund Fenway-style renovations to Wrigley.

06.07.11
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The Cost of Indecision

It’s been a while since I have posted here. Not that ML needs any help, but I felt like it was time I stepped up and earned the fact that my name gets to appear with his on the side bar.

This desire to contribute didn’t come out of the blue. It actually took root in a recent meeting that I arranged, at my workplace and over lunch, with ML and one Doug Boxer. Many of you know that Doug is the driving force behind Let’s Go Oakland, a group of people who are passionate and committed to keeping the A’s in Oaktown.

While we didn’t really talk about anything that anyone that reads this site with regularity doesn’t already know, I was impressed with Boxer and his straight forward style in discussing both the advantages of Oakland as well as the challenges it faces. I wish many of the Pro Oakland folks that I know were equally as honest about the challenges that face the Town in their pursuit of having a stadium built. Challenges, that while real, are not impossible to overcome if accepted and addressed. Especially when you have smart people working on a realistic solution. In short, if there is a solution in Oakland, Boxer will be part of sorting it out… Even if he doesn’t have all the answers about funding the joint right now, something I think he would freely acknowledge.

After having this more than an hour discussion, I can say a few things with absolute certitude. The City of Oakland has had an opportunity to put forward it’s best ideas. The ideas they have chosen as the best have been listened to. The people of Oakland are fortunate to have a guy like Doug Boxer in their corner. If he can’t help find a way to make it work in Oakland, I am confident saying that no one can, or will.

One of the topics of discussion, something I hoped to glean but didn’t, was what the heck this two year delay has been all about. ML, Doug and I all had our own thoughts, though none of us really know for certain. The reality is that it doesn’t matter, Bud Selig’s lack of foresight has already been extremely costly to our favorite franchise and should offend the sensibilities of all of us A’s fans in the Bay Area. After all, we live in a region with a long history of successful companies that grow from flashes of imagination to household names in the time it has taken for Bud’s panel to do absolutely nothing but “study” an already pretty clear situation.

From Pandora to Facebook, companies in the Bay Area prove all the time that chasing a perfect solution to any problem is a waste of time and detrimental to getting something done. So is sitting on one’s own hands and waiting for a solution to appear. It seems that one of these two scenarios is playing out before our very eyes. Either Bud is waiting for Oakland, or San Jose, to give up so he doesn’t have to force the issue, or he is expecting years of research to come up with a magic bullet to slay the Beast of Where an A’s Stadium Should Reside. Both are foolish.

A brief interlude… As you can probably already tell, I am kind of cranky. That isn’t really anything new for us A’s fans. Really, it’s like we are all building blocks in the 9th Wonder of the World: The Frustrated Pyramid of Oakland. Think about it for a minute, we are the bottom few rows of humongous sandy blocks. We make up the first few layers of frustration as we sit helplessly watching the players flail away. Those same players make up the next few rows of the great pyramid. As they struggle to figure out how a promising season devolved in one week’s time. Decimated pitching staff? check! Underperforming veterans? Check! But most importantly, clearly incapable of carrying out the most important parts of his duties manager? Double check!

I’d throw Bob Geren in as the next level of frustration, but I am not sure how long he is going to be around. Color me skeptical, but when was the last time an owner went on record in support of his Manager only to change his mind not so long after? Maybe, if Bob Geren gets crushed between the pressure of Billy Beane’s frustration at not being able to get a premier bat to come to Oakland and all the grumpy players (players who are grumpy because Bob Geren, himself, can’t communicate or manage a bullpen) it will provide some stress relief for all of us?

And on top of Beane’s frustration we have Uncle Lew. Now, some of you who read here regularly are going to have real trouble trying to sympathize with Lew Wolff, but just imagine the conspiracy angle is true. Imagine Bud invited Lew to buy the A’s so that he could move the team out of Oakland. Imagine Lew playing his part perfectly… Nope no land in Oakland. Nope, $30M later, Fremont won’t work. Hey Bud, time to pull the trigger on that San Jose thing you asked me to get done… Oh, wait.

Now pretend the conspiracy isn’t real (or accept that it isn’t, depending on your view)… Imagine spending a few years reaching out to different people in Oakland, as Lew did. Imagine amassing the magic “binder” of letter’s rejecting the use of places like Howard Terminal, researching how a river of crap flowing beneath the old HomeBase site impacts potential development, and so on and so forth. Imagine having a solution and walking into Bud’s office and being told… “Hold on a minute while we redo everything you have done and let the local press savage you for the next 2 years and take no action to help you move forward either way… Oh, and please keep holding the line for now. Afterall, we are ‘working’ on it.”

Man alive that is a whole lot of frustration from top to bottom! But how about our two fair cities of consideration? Where do they fit in this Great Pyramid of Teeth Grindage? Has Bud’s indecision cost them anything?

First, an election will need to happen in San Jose should that locale be chosen. He had voter support to make it happen. Who knows what he has now? This is the cost of indecision.

Second, he had some momentum in Oakland… A grass roots group of supporters that are willing to make the case for a new stadium doesn’t exactly fall out of trees. How long does a Facebook group and clicking a link to send a form letter keep people’s attention? This is the cost of indecision.

These are just two, of many examples, of the cost of indecision. Bud didn’t capitalize on either. Instead he says “this is a complex situation” and insults our intelligence. That isn’t how you build the most successful internet radio platform. This isn’t how you build a social network with hundreds of millions of users. This isn’t how you should run Major League Baseball.

At Facebook, there are signs posted all around the place that say “Done is Better Than Perfect.” I think Bud needs to visit and catch a glimpse of how business is done these days. At Pandora, I am sure that copyright law policy and advertising sales campaigns and boosting subscription service account holders are all issues worked in unison. No, the “Dodgers and Mets have really screwed up… everything else is on hold” sort of dalliances don’t usually hold muster at companies that own the future.

Having a consensus builder at the helm isn’t exactly like having a visionary running the show. Having a man who can’t make a decision without the approval of those he “leads” is cutting into our fan base. And by our, I mean we. Me and you and all of us who should be preparing for a new yard instead of bickering about where that home should be.

Some other things that are currently cutting into the A’s fandom? Monte Poole’s monthly “Lew Wolff and John Fisher are characters from an Austin Powers film” column. By now, Poole should have been able to write off the A’s as the 30 mile moving carpet baggers or embraced Wolff for getting something done in the East Bay. Instead I have to argue with my friends, who support the same team I do, once a month about how Lew Wolff isn’t Emperor Palpatine and that, no, me pointing that out doesn’t make me an apologist. I will be really happy when I don’t have to read those columns anymore.

By now, our focus could be on how we band together to get Bob Geren the heck out of Dodge. Instead we argue, here and other places, about what Oakland could have done 15 years ago. As if that matters.

By now, some of us could have moved on to not being A’s fans if we so chose. Instead we drone on and on about what Lew Wolff’s intentions were when he bought the team. As if that has any bearing on MLB’s committee.

By now, some of us could be driving down to check out progress on the new yard every other week. Instead we fight about funding models for an imaginary stadium.

By now, we could all be looking at 3D illustrations and picking a seat for our season ticket package. Instead we are nitpicking “projections” of how many thousands of people would be sitting in the tarped off section of the O.co Coliseum.

By now, we could all be celebrating the signing of some free agent with a power bat. Instead we take sides in a debate over whether Scott Boras was telling the truth about why Adrian Beltre didn’t sign in Oakland.

By now, we could be talking about things that are relevant to the future of our favorite baseball franchise. Instead we are in a perpetual discussion over things that are irrelevant.

This is the cost of indecision. Something tells me a bad decision couldn’t be any worse.

06.04.11
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Winnipeg reaches 13k goal in less than a week

Now that’s how you sell a place out.

True North, the company buying the Atlanta Thrashers in an effort to move them to Winnipeg, announced earlier today that it had reached its goal of 13,000 season tickets sold. Not only that, they’ve also amassed an 8,000-person waiting list – and they had to cut it off to boot. The goal was reached only 17 minutes after general sales to the public opened this morning.

Pre-sales to existing Manitoba Moose season ticket holders occurred during a 3-day window from Wednesday to Friday, totaling 7,158 packages. That means 5,842 packages sold to the public in those 17 minutes. If there’s any doubt as to whether Winnipeg loves its hockey, those concerns have been most assuredly quelled. Only deposits were required upfront. The use of monthly payment plans will probably make things easier, and the waiting list will make up for whomever didn’t check in properly with their spouses first and eventually had to drop off.

In any case, good for you Winnipeg. You’re now the Green Bay of hockey. Enjoy those frequent trips to Tampa and Fort Lauderdale (I smell lucrative road trip packages coming). The not-Thrashers will continue to be in the Southeast Division next season. The NHL’s Board of Governors votes on the move June 21.

06.03.11
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The debt is too damn high

LA Times baseball writer Bill Shaikin reported today that as many as nine teams throughout MLB may be in violation of the league’s debt rules. Those teams are (reason for debt in parentheses):

  • LA Dodgers (McCourt divorce)
  • NY Mets (new stadium, Madoff scandal)
  • Chicago Cubs (recent sale)
  • Texas (recent sale, high assumed debt)
  • Washington (new stadium highly leveraged team purchase)
  • Florida (new stadium)
  • Detroit (extremely high payroll compared to revenue)
  • Baltimore (new regional sports network startup costs)

If the A’s build a ballpark somewhere they’ll join these teams. The A’s current debt load is reasonably low according to Forbes’ figures. It will surely rise when it comes time to finance a venue, though I would expect additional partners to be brought in to help soften the blow. At the end of last season I wrote about what the debt rule’s effects on the A’s are now and into the future. Then the post was about payroll. Now it’s about debt service on a new ballpark.

30-year financing of a $450 million ballpark at 6% will cost $27 million per year. For the sake of this discussion, let’s assume there are some cost overruns assumed by the A’s, plus additional soft costs and insurance, bringing debt service to a round $30 million per year. That’s 25x the lease payment they’re making this season, so the revenue streams they’re getting from a new ballpark better be worth it. Lew Wolff has maintained for some time that seat licenses aren’t part of the equation, so no upfront payments are included.

At the same time, it’s no fun having a new ballpark if all you’re going to do is pay a mortgage. Stadium revenue needs to be well above and beyond the debt service amount to make it worthwhile. The Giants and Cardinals have proved it’s possible to make it work, but the amount the A’s will have to shoulder will be unprecedented for a team that’s not in one of the big three markets. To understand the team’s challenge, I’ve broken down how the $30 million can be addressed using multiple revenue sources.

The table above assumes attendance 30,000+ per game, with a complete sellout of premium seating options. In-stadium sponsorships also play a big role, one-third of the debt. Having improved amenities such as rental facilities, a large video board, and ribbon boards will make a huge difference. That makes revenue from every attendee above the 30,000 mark pure gravy. The Giants have operated in this manner since their ballpark opened.

Pretty pie chart

It all seems hunky dory when the fans are filling the place. What happens when they don’t? Let’s look at a scenario in which the A’s only pull in 22,500 per game, or 1.8 million per season.

Lower demand of 25% all around affects all sales, regular and premium. It also puts the team at risk of coming up short, which may force them to cut costs such as payroll.

A drop of $5 million per year is nothing compared to what the Mets and Dodgers are experiencing. However it has broad effects for the A’s because it limits their flexibility. Less money is available upfront for payroll, and they may have to pull from non-stadium sources (TV/Radio) to make ends meet. At the end of the season, they may even find themselves back on revenue sharing welfare (ex.: Pittsburgh). They’ll still have the benefit of the stadium expenses writeoff to help ease the pain, but it’s not a situation anyone wants to be in long term.

Bud Selig and the owners have to be keenly aware of the risk, which may be a legitimate reason why they’re moving so slothlike regarding the A’s. For Oakland, where corporate support isn’t the strongest and attendance has historically been weak, they’ll be looking to keep the A’s from being a bad leverage case like the Dodgers. For San Jose, the question of territorial rights may effectively push the true cost of the ballpark up, though it’s not known how much. Neither is an easy issue to address. Most previous ballparks had huge public financing components to take care of debt service with only a nominal lease payment required of the team tenant. The Giants continue to claim that revenue the South Bay is absolutely necessary to guarantee payments at AT&T Park. Despite the large debt the A’s could accrue, the potential for an extra $30-50 million or more per year after debt service makes it worthwhile, compared to languishing at the Coliseum with no real hope for significant revenue. I’d like to see a $90 million payroll at some point, even if I have to pay more out of pocket to make it happen.

06.02.11
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Poole accuses Wolff/Fisher of being “slumlords”

Cue the weekly flamefest in the comments. In the Trib, Monte Poole writes:

They have become a wealthy guy (Wolff) and an obscenely wealthy guy (Fisher) who acquired a valuable property, neglected it outright and continue to reap profits. It’s the slumlord model.

At this point in the Wolff/Fisher tenure, perception tends to be reality. Local perception is that the team is neglected by ownership. National perception is that the team is stuck thanks to a bad stadium. Both are equally true. As much as Lew Wolff will point out the need for revenues, fans in general don’t care. They want marquee players. They want Billy Beane to swindle another GM before the non-waiver trade deadline every year. Fans also don’t care that the A’s payroll is $67 million and should’ve been close to $80 million if they had signed Adrian Beltre as desired. It’s about results. It’s about scoreboard.

The inconvenient truth is that the revenue problem does matter. Wolff/Fisher may be the 4th richest ownership in baseball, but if team revenues are near the bottom every year even when a handsome revenue sharing check is included, they can’t do anything other than operate the team within its means. That means the payroll will rarely be higher than $70 million and never beyond $90 million as long as this economic state lingers. When you’re getting swept by the 3X payroll Yankees, it’s not comforting. The worst part is that even if the tarps were ripped off the third deck and attendance rose to 2.5 million, the A’s would still need some $5-10 million in revenue sharing every year.

In the past we’ve discussed contention windows and how brief and sensitive they are for low revenue teams. Beane gambled on Eric Chavez and lost, and we suffered as a result. No position player in the organization has that franchise cornerstone look or appeal. The other poor, bad stadium team is Tampa Bay, and they have a franchise player in Evan Longoria who, fortunately for the Rays and Rays fans, did not break his back in the playoffs. They’ve had time to figure out whether a previous phenom like B.J. Upton is worth a big future contract (so far, no), and while they’re at it they might throw money at Matt Joyce instead when the time comes.

A's and Rays financials for the past dozen years. Data from Forbes.

In the chart above, the percentage of player expenses as part of revenue only rises above 60% once. That was the 2005 Athletics, another example of when a clearly overpaid journeyman lineup repeatedly failed to support a brilliant young pitching staff. The Rays shed so much payroll during the recent offseason that (unlike Forbes’ numbers above) they have a lower payroll than the A’s. They can do that because Longoria isn’t hamstringing the team fiscally as Chavez did and they didn’t lock up Upton, giving them flexibility. They’ve been able to play the rent-a-slugger game effectively, the same way the A’s did 5-10 years ago. Even with their recent success, the Rays aren’t taking any major risks, and have put themselves in the position to delay those kinds of decisions for at least another couple of years. Same risk-averse money strategy, different results, thanks to whomever is on the team.

Unfortunately, history is repeating itself regarding the A’s hitters. The notable exception is free agent-to-be Josh Willingham, who is, as I pointed out to Jeffrey the other day, 2nd on the West Coast in home runs. (In this era that has to be an achievement of sorts.) As long as the A’s have that severe pitching-hitting imbalance on the roster, and none of the pitchers is a 200 K/year flamethrower, there’ll be little to provide buzz for the media or casual fans.

There is a Cahill Street outside Diridon Station that ends at what would be the third base gate for Cisco Field. It’s not like Wolff and his marketing people don’t see the great marketing opportunity that awaits if they can get a ballpark in San Jose. Curiously, Trevor Cahill was signed through the 2015 season, with reasonable options for 2016 and 2017. Cisco Field can’t open before 2015. Beyond the value of a good young pitcher with cost controls in place, there is a definite effort to cultivate a star, and a uniquely Californian one at that. The thing is that ground balls aren’t sexy.

What does that have to do with Wolff and Fisher being slumlords? Nothing, because it’s a bad comparison. It’s not like Beane and David Forst aren’t trying to draft, trade for, and develop great hitters the same way a slumlord won’t fix the heating or plumbing in an apartment building. People often point to the Carlos Gonzalez trade debacle, but we’re nearly three years removed from that and we still don’t know who the real CarGo is, or if he can really hit a breaking pitch at sea level (kind of important at the Coliseum). Now we can point to what appears to be a systemic failure to develop hitters over the last several years, and that goes straight to the top. That may be incompetent, but not necessarily negligent. Does anyone honestly think that a guy of Billy’s reputation and ego doesn’t want to go out there and compete? Come on now. And I’ll go out on a limb and guess that no one within the organization was counting on the amount of regression shown by the A’s hitters collectively this season.

Are Wolff and Beane doing everything possible to win? Of course not. Are they doing everything within their means? I’d say so, for better or worse. For Sunday’s game, none of the concession stands on the plaza level other than the club area were open. It felt like a ghost town. Yet the stands elsewhere else weren’t busy enough to warrant staffing another stand. Just because the landlord isn’t gifting a granite and maple kitchen with stainless steel appliances to his tenants doesn’t mean he’s a slumlord. He’s working within his limitations. It’s not his fault the location sucks. Oh, and if you want those amenities, guess what? You’ll need to move into another building. He’s got one of those if you’re interested…

05.31.11
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Winnipeg’s drive to 13,000

Before True North’s press conference devolved into a lengthy sales pitch for season tickets, there was an air of justice and patriotism in the crowd. I really sensed that a wrong was being righted, similar to the way a wrongly convicted man was getting his release. Of course, it’s borderline ludicrous to compare the two, but that’s the passion in Winnipeg right now. They’re getting NHL hockey back in town. Whether it remains there depends on how they sell out. And by selling out, I mean season tickets. 13,000 to be exact in a 15,000-seat arena. If True North can feed on this passion, MTS Centre will be the toughest ticket in Canada for years to come.

Notice how there's no team name? They haven't picked one yet. Um, Jets?

True North kicked off the sales campaign by launching a website, Driveto13.com. It describes the pricing plans, sales dates, and terms. There’s even a toteboard for fans and media to keep track of progress, and True North will be sending out a press release every afternoon with an update.

Winnipeg is a tiny market, with only 700,000 within its metro. It’s actually smaller than San Mateo County. Despite the passion for hockey in Winnipeg and throughout Manitoba, the NHL is most concerned with whether that passion can properly counterbalance that size problem. To assuage Gary Bettman’s concerns, True North is putting a few terms on ticket purchasers which should, if successful, address the franchise’s long-term viability in Winnipeg.

Prices are reasonable, we swear

These prices are consistent with those of other Canadian teams. However there is a catch.

A three-day presale will be afforded to season ticket holders for the Manitoba Moose AHL team, who were brought in when the Jets left for Phoenix. These ticket holders should be prepared for some sticker shock, as the highest priced seat package for the NHL team will be 3.5x the price of the same seats for the Moose. After the presale period ends the general sale begins, and that’s when it’ll get interesting. The NHL Board of Governors has to approve the move. Rest assured that they and Bettman will be looking at the toteboard with a critical eye.

Locking the fans in

To head off concerns about viability, True North is attempting to lock in season ticket buyers for up to 5 years.

An interesting tack being taken by True North is a mandate of multiyear commitments for season tickets. This is where the rubber meets the road, as it will demonstrate how far Winnipeggers’ passion will stretch. A median-priced seat in the lower bowl end or corner will require an outlay of over $14,000 over four years. The best seats will cost twice as much over five years. Only the worst season ticket pricing levels will have the option for half-season plans. To make the price easier to swallow, True North is also advertising monthly payment plans, which for the purposes of comparison amounts to the cost of a car payment (depending on how luxurious the car). Nominal deposts will also be required. One thing not part of the conversation is the dreaded personal seat license, which is a good move given the stigma associated with PSLs.

These are aggressive moves and goals for True North and Winnipeg. We’ll see soon see if the fan response translates into chopping away into the 13,000 goal over the summer. As for the team name, I hope the Jets are available. If not, I have a suggestion.

(BTW, I don’t really care for the name “Polar Bears”. I needed an excuse to insert the clip.)

There are also some potentially good takeaways for the A’s, and especially ballpark supporters in Oakland, a city that has limitations like Winnipeg (though not as severe). If a goal can be set, perhaps 15,000 season tickets, with 3-5 year commitments, that would go a long way towards convincing Bud Selig and the owners that Oakland is viable. The same could also go for San Jose, in that it would prove that the T-rights battle is worth it. In any case, though it’s tough to see hockey leave Atlanta a second (and final) time, it’s nice to see that hockey is back in Winnipeg, where it belongs. Good luck, Manitobans.