The A’s recently signed a four-year extension to their development agreement with the Sacramento River Cats. The key here is that the agreement runs through 2010. That’s pretty much the same year that the A’s other agreements – leases, radio, television – run out.

From a strategic standpoint, it puts the A’s in an extremely flexible position once the current arrangements end, whether it’s in the Bay Area or beyond. But does that mean a potential exodus to Sacramento? Bee columnist Marcus Bretón, who has been championing the A’s moving to Sac for several years, says it’s possible but isn’t counting on such a development.

Any talk about Sacramento has been complicated by joint efforts of downtown Sacramento business leaders and the Kings to build a downtown arena. The arena would be located on the site of a 240-acre, abandoned Union Pacific railyard. Two measures are on the November ballot for a 1/4-cent sales tax hike in Sacramento county as well as a plan to develop the railyard, which would conceivably include the arena. However, yesterday the Maloofs broke off talks with the city/county over the size and scope of the arena piece. Supposedly the plan is short on parking for the arena, among other things.

Does this provide an opening for the A’s? It’s possible, but it would be a long shot. First off, a ballpark alone could have double the physical footprint of an arena (in this plan the arena is 8.5 acres, a ballpark could be 12-18 acres). While parking requirements in the area adjacent to a ballpark may not be as large as what the Kings are looking for, there’d still be a requirement of some 1,200 spaces or more. That would stretch the ballpark’s scope to around 20 acres, which is exactly the amount of land being allocated for the entire arena/entertainment district area.

For Sacramento to even be able to entertain the A’s in this regard, several things would have to happen:

• Measures Q (authorizes usage of funds from Measure R) & R (1/4-cent sales tax hike over 15 years) must pass
• The Kings choose not to go with a downtown arena (possible, given a recent statement by Joe Maloof)
• Downtown interests redo their redevelopment plan to include a ballpark instead of an arena
• City/county allow the Kings to build elsewhere without being required to provide public funds – this could mean in or out of Sacramento

Supposedly the tax would generate some $1 billion or more over the 15 years of the tax hike. Keep in mind that this money would not just go towards a ballpark. It would go towards the development of the remaining 220 acres, and that means large amounts of infrastructure. Cleanup of the land is expected to be costly. The land purchase is still under negotiation. I would be surprised if the various parties would be able to turn around and get something done in a year. My guess is that it won’t.

Bretón misreads the A’s situation in his article. He writes that the A’s have been faithful to the East Bay by virtue of the talks with Fremont, but based on Lew Wolff’s speech for the San Jose Chamber last week, it’s only true if “East Bay” were replaced by “Greater Bay Area.”

One more “Choose or Lose the A’s” event is slated for this Friday at 5:00 in the Coliseum B-Lot. More info can be found at the Green Stampede and A’s Fan Radio myspace pages.

In SI’s annual Fan Value Index (ratings based on surveyed attendees at various games), McAfee Coliseum came in 20th out of the 30 MLB parks. As usual, there’s a cheap shot at the idea of the A’s moving to Vegas or Louisville (???), but these days that comes with the territory. The Coliseum scores high in terms of Accessibility (public transportation, parking) and Team (of course) but low in Neighborhood. Wrigley Field, of all places, scores lower – but that’s due to the Cubs being so awful this season. One thing that deserves reading further: the Accessibility section of each ballpark is quite telling. Compare the two Bay Area ballparks’ results to the LA parks. If Fremont is the place, the challenge will be in convincing the public that the experience will be more like the former than the latter.

There are a slough of articles (Merc, Chron, Ratto) about the opening of the new Stanford Stadium this weekend. The privately-financed project, which has taken just over 9 months and $100 million, is considered a minor miracle in stadium development parlance. I’ll go into why next week after I check the place out during its inaugural game on Saturday night.

In St. Louis, the Cardinals have stretched out their hands for what could be $100 million in subsidies to fund their updated version of a ballpark village. This project is one to watch for it could provide a blueprint as to how an A’s ballpark village might look, even if the funding methods aren’t the same.

Remember how Lew Wolff in the beginning of the season that he expects to make an announcement about the A’s future home by the end of the season? Well, it appears that he now expects to push that date out until perhaps the end of the year. He admitted as much during Robert Buan’s interview with him after today’s comeback victory. Wolff said that things are progressing on the ballpark front, but didn’t get into any specifics. He also mentioned that he’s part of baseball’s Enterprise committee (which covers branding among many business-related aspects), and that he wants to be part of the Advanced Media committee (internet).

Honestly, this shouldn’t shock anyone. These deals can take a long time to gestate even if on the surface they appear simple. The possible delay may be interpreted any number of ways. I’ll stay away from that kind of speculation for now.

On my way to the Coliseum over the weekend I stopped off at Pacific Commons to see if anything has happened at the site. No surprises there. Earthmoving equipment was in the same place as before. The Auto Mall is filling in nicely with a new Lexus dealership almost completed at the south end. A Claim Jumper location opened while I was away. And cows are grazing on the meadows that intermingle with the marsh.

What? Cows in Fremont? (queue the old Berkeley Farms ad)

The CHP building whose sign is visible in the top left corner is the one you pass on the left when heading south on 880. It is across the freeway from Pacific Commons.

Cows make for pretty effective growth control. You’ll see them frequently on hillsides on both sides of the bay acting as a natural fire retardant. Decades ago, the irrepressible Charles O. Finley had goats manicure the grass at KC Muni. As part of the Pacific Commons wetlands preservation and restoration project, maintenance has to be kept up on some of the grassy areas of the tidal marsh. Enter a non-native species to take care of the growth. The cows seem to like hanging out closer to the freeway. This is probably due to taller grasses the further inland one goes.

• Pacific Commons Wetlands Project Map
• Ecosystem Restoration Plan

The map contains the development map and historical detail, including mentions of the old Sky Sailing Airport and an abandoned drive-in theater. A 390-acre preserve has been created, and a 49-acre park is planned. That park is near the location of a planned Amtrak/ACE station.

Here’s a map of the project site, divided into the development parcel and the preserve.

The yellow area is considered the development area. Any other white area has already been developed. The gray area is the preserve. The green area is a bit of a question mark. Informal calculation of the yellow area has it sized at around 120-130 acres, while the green area (if included) adds 35 more. I’ll need to verify this with the city and county. The green area has been cleared out and flattened, so at least it looks like it’s waiting for something to be built on it.

I intentionally left “existing landfill” in the cropped map. FYI, it has not smelled any time I have gone into the Pacific Commons area. That’s at least a couple dozen times over the past year.

If the green area is truly part of the development area, it’s where I think the ballpark should go. Here’s why:

• 35 acres is sufficient for the immediate ballpark village area, which would include the stadium, museum, hotel, and premium/priority parking.
• The parcel would as a buffer between the residential area and the preserve.
• The area is the closest usable point to the planned Amtrak/ACE station, slightly under a mile away.
• Depending on the types of buildings erected, a view to the outfield could have a mini-city of towers framed by Mission Peak and the surrounding hills.
• Traffic can be routed along Cushing Parkway, which would help prevent fans from invading the parking lots of the big box stores. Traffic from the north could run through the Auto Mall (dealers will love the traffic), and traffic from the south would reach the area directly from Cushing.

By planning in this manner, residential buildings could be placed in the northeastern corner (the yellow area that juts out to the left). There’s room there for 1000-2000 units based on typical densities. That would leave almost 100 acres remaining for other commercial development and parking. Want to build a Santana Row/Bay Street type of development between the ballpark and the residential area? No problem. Does Cisco want to build a set of signature towers in the outfield? Sure thing. Even with the negotiations that will most certainly have to commence with the change in development plans, there are ways to mitigate impacts that benefit the public, the wetlands, and the developers.

Which gets me to the last topic tonight. James also asked about trails or beautification that would occur at the existing wetlands, which would be beautiful except for the landfills and salt ponds that currently take up much of the area. As you may already know, many of the salt ponds are being reclaimed as part of the SFO runway extension deal. Cargill sold much of their salt ponds to the government, which in turn is starting the transformation of salt ponds back into wetlands. The Alviso portion of the project abuts the southern tip of the Pacific Commons area. As the project moves forward, one of the goals is to complete the Bay Trail, the network of trails and paths that will ring the bay.

Currently there are a number of disjointed and often difficult-to-access trails of varying shape. The double-orange line shows an unimproved trail. The gray dotted lines show planned trails. Red lines are existing trails or bike paths. Station Island, which is also known by the name Drawbridge, once had inhabitants and a thriving frontier town economy, but with the changes made by the creation of the salt ponds, eventually started to sink into the bay. Now it’s no longer safe to walk on the islands (believe me, I know this firsthand) even though Amtrak/ACE/Union Pacific trains run through it on an elevated track everyday. The first step is to replenish the wetlands. Afterwards, we can talk trails. While there may be a park buffer between the developed area and the wetlands, it’ll be a thin sliver compared to the thousands of acres of wetlands.

I’m a bit afraid that the picture of cattle at the top will cause people to deride Fremont as a cowtown, a la Sacramento. Is that better or worse than being called a bedroom community?

When I posted a few weeks ago on Lew Wolff’s SJ Chamber talk, I discussed the possibility that he may once and for all eliminate Downtown San Jose from all future discussions. On Wednesday, Wolff finally made it official. Rumors of this were present as early as six months ago, but I wanted to see something official first.

Barry Witt’s article in the Merc sheds light on a few new items that fill in the gaps quite a bit:

• Wolff tried to broker deals to get the rights to Santa Clara County, but Giants ownership was unwilling to give them up.
• He tried even before he had become managing partner.

This is certainly different from Wolff’s “We’re focusing on Oakland” stance of April 2005, when he took control of the team. Then again, it’s consistent with his statements that he wouldn’t challenge the Giants’ rights. It’s possible that discussions over territorial rights date back to when Wolff was given the VP of Venue Development title.

Chris De Benedetti’s wrap-up of the event has a more East Bay-tinged flavor and includes quotes from Fremont City Manager Fred Diaz, Oakland City Council member Larry Reid, and Mike Healy, spokesman for Oakland mayor-elect Ron Dellums.

There have been clues that pointed to this. Chief among them is #1 San Jose backer Mark Purdy’s change from Fremont as a negotiating ploy to Fremont as the best alternative given the circumstances. This didn’t happen overnight. Purdy’s newest article sounds like a sales pitch to the many Baseball San Jose supporters who need to be convinced to support the Fremont ballpark – it won’t work financially unless their corporate dollars buy those suites, ads, and club seats.

Purdy dives further into the rumor mill with the following:

“There are plenty of murmurs in Silicon Valley circles that Cisco is smitten with the idea of a partnership with the A’s, on many levels — including naming rights to the ballpark. There are rumblings out of Cisco’s offices that concepts for a ‘ballpark of the future’ have already been brainstormed and game-planned. The project allegedly has support from the highest levels, including CEO John Chambers.”

Even though I’m a nerd who works in high tech, I hope “ballpark of the future” doesn’t lend itself to dehumanizing the game. All I want is for AM radio reception to work in the ballpark.

I was supposed to attend the event this morning but had to attend to some personal matters. Jay Hipps from Soccer Silicon Valley has audio from the event if you’re interested. There is some news from the soccer/Quakes front as well.

A handful of articles have been put out over the past few months questioning how infrastructure will be paid for at Pacific Commons should a ballpark come in. Chief among these concerns is the extra policing that will be required for event security, traffic control, and additional presence in the new “entertainment district” that should be expected. Officer.com, a police industry website, has the Argus story from June detailing Fremont’s budget woes. In the story are the following nuggets:

• AT&T Park typically has 18 SFPD officers on staff for a Giants game, 24 for Giants-Dodgers games
• The Giants pay for security inside the park, SF City/County pays for traffic/crowd control outside the park.
• In 2005, overtime for Giants games cost $250,000.
• Fremont typically has only 16 officers deployed at any one time throughout the entire city.
• Fremont has slashed its budget by cutting $25 million and 220 jobs over the past few years.
• Fremont may have to dip into its reserve fund to pay for 2006-07 city services.

Sounds daunting, doesn’t it? It does, but only when viewed through the prism of those facts above. There are several things to keep in mind:

• Population has grown 1-2% in the past 5 years. That along with the state’s budget crunch have severely limited appropriations to Fremont. With the creation of new housing at Pacific Commons (5,000-10,000 new residents), by law appropriations will grow proportionally.
• Rezoning and reassessment of the remaining Pacific Commons should increase property tax revenues significantly, on the order of several million dollars per year. Fremont gets 15% of every property tax dollar, while Alameda County gets 20% into its general fund.
• New retail development will increase sales tax revenue. Of the 8.75% sales tax rate in Alameda County, a 0.5% chunk automatically goes towards local public safety. Should 250,000 new square feet be built, that small 0.5% chunk would translate to as much as $500,000 per year alone for local public safety (based on $400 per square foot, per year in sales).
• Hotel tax revenue growth has been flat since the dot-com bust. The creation of a new hotel (a new Hilton to replace the old Fremont Hilton?) and buzz in the South Fremont area could translate into increased revenues, especially the Fremont Marriott. Fremont’s hotel tax is 8%, lower than both Oakland (11%) and San Jose (10%), so there is room for a hotel tax hike if it’s warranted.

If all of that fails to bring in the necessary revenue, there is always one possibility: a ticket tax. Historically, such a tax has proven unappealing to teams because they see a ticket tax as eating into their own ticket revenue. However, even a nominal tax – say, 50 cents per ticket – should produce upwards of $1 million per year depending on attendance. That should go a long way towards funding the necessary police presence at Pacific Commons. The introduction of such a tax will be a bone of contention. The good thing about it is that the tax wouldn’t be used to pay down any bond-related debt, only for budgeted services.

If anything, the big question is where the staffing will come from. Fremont certainly isn’t going to hire a dozen or so police officers just to staff A’s games. Much of the time stadium detail is overtime work and is charged accordingly. It’s possible that staff will have to come from neighboring jurisdictions such as Newark and Union City. The Alameda County Sheriff’s department may be tapped as well. The Sheriff’s department has grown as a result of the closure of the Oakland City Jail, though I’m no expert as to how prison guard work translates into stadium detail.

Fire and emergency services are no small requirement either, and both of those have been hit by the budget crunch. Again, the incremental increases in revenue should help this even if the state’s budget problems remain. The fact is that the city needs to grow economically to insulate itself against future crises.

As Fremont celebrates its 50th anniversary, its leaders need to plot how the next 10, 20, 50 years will look. A decision on the ballpark development will go a long way towards establishing that legacy.

NBC11’s Raj Mathai ended the sports section of the tonight’s late newscast with a mention of a Merc article about the Sharks’ pursuit of a pro hoops franchise. Mathai noted that the Sharks’ failed bid for the Seattle Sonics involved one particular big-money guy at the end: Oracle’s Larry Ellison. The Sonics have already been sold to business interests from Oklahoma City, who last season played gracious and enthusiastic part-time hosts to the Katrina-displaced New Orleans Hornets. New owner Clay Bennett sounds diplomatic so far but just about everyone sees the skids being greased for a hasty exit.

The Sharks’ initial bid appeared dead a few weeks ago, but now it appears that the Sharks will go to the City of San Jose looking for upgrades to HP Pavilion, which could make the Tank more attractive for an NBA team. The actual request is to authorize a study to see what improvements would be required, similar in scope to the ballpark study – though precluding an entirely new arena. While some technological upgrades would be welcome – particularly in the form of upgraded video boards, fascia boards, and HDTV monitors – I sincerely doubt that mere upgrades will make a NBA team leap to SJ. To make a deal attractive for a non-Sharks-owned team, the NBA team would be looking for a large piece of the Pavilion’s current revenue stream, a piece that the Sharks would be loathe to give up. This would apply to the Sacramento Kings should their efforts to build a downtown Sac arena wither. If the Maloof brothers were to show interest in selling the team to San Jose interests, it would be a different story. There are problems with the Warriors, who aren’t going to take a new competitor to their market lying down. Then there’s the overlord himself, David Stern. From a strategic standpoint, it makes little sense to use SJ as anything more than a stalking horse. Stern has been more vociferous in his complaints than Sonics ownership, which tells me that he’s actually interested in keeping them there. If he simply wanted a stress-free arena deal (market notwithstanding), the Sonics, Kings, or Hornets would already be signed long term to OKC, Vegas, Anaheim, or ahem, San Jose.

Speaking of the Warriors, they and the Coliseum Authority still haven’t gotten a naming rights deal in place for the Oakland Arena. There isn’t officially a naming rights sponsor for the new Arizona Cardinals stadium, but there is at least one suitor who has been turned down: hip mexican restaurant chain pink taco. pink taco is not some mom-and-pop taqueria. It’s run by Harry Morton, son of Hard Rock Cafe/Hotel/Casino and Morton’s Steakhouse proprietor Peter Morton. They’re apparently serious, according to a press release and an article in The Business Journal of Phoenix. The Morton family just sold off the Hard Rock brand for some $700 million.

Interestingly enough, a Morton’s location is scheduled to open in downtown San Jose as part of a huge refurbishment of Park Center Plaza. The complex, which was once a major part of Lew Wolff’s portfolio, could soon spawn a big name competitor to Wolff’s existing restaurants. And on the morning of August 30, Wolff will speak about the future of downtown San Jose a block away from Park Center Plaza at Adobe.

(Yes, I could’ve mentioned Wolff’s previous stint as a part owner of the Warriors, but I chose the more circuitous route.)

Wednesday night’s game against the M’s might not turn into Sharks vs. Jets, but it should still be fairly compelling. While the day is officially Fremont Day at the A’s (with full pregame regalia), a “There is No ‘A’ in Fremont” rally will be held outside the stadium. I don’t come back from overseas until this weekend, so I won’t be there. Whatever happens, please keep it civil folks, and focus on the action on the field.

In related news, the Argus’s Chris De Benedetti has a non-update of the Pacific Commons situation, but also has a quote from a NUMMI spokesperson that indicate that the A’s and NUMMI have not had talks regarding the Warm Springs site. We’ll have to wait until Wolff’s speech at the end of the month for anything substantive.

Today’s check of the BigSoccer forums netted a thread titled “Lew Wolff to speak at SJ Chamber.” The first post has the following blurb from member JayCee:

Taken from the Chamber Advocate Newsletter, August 2006

The Oakland A’s owner, Lew Wolff, will be the guest speaker at the San Jose Chamber’s, Silicon Valley Buzz, on Wednesday August 30th.

He will discuss hot topics, including the future of baseball in San Jose and the possibility of securing a professional soccer team for Silicon Valley, etc, etc.

The Silicon Valley Morning Buzz will be held at Adobe in the Gallery Room, 345 Park Ave, San Jose from 8am-9:30am. The event is free for Chamber members and $15 for prospecitve members. For more information and registration, call (408) 291-5286.

With less than two months to go in the season, this is about the right time for the machine to get going again. It was roughly one year ago that the Coliseum North presentation was made, and Wolff has publicly stated that he wants to have everything wrapped up by the end of the season.

What will Lew say to all those people who are by-in-large quite familiar and friendly with him? Will he drive a stake in the heart of San Jose’s downtown ballpark dreams? Will he publicly say that the team’s name will be changed to the San Jose A’s? Will he completely confirm the Fremont project? In a summer that has generally lacked action on the ballpark front, the potential for news is huge. Then again, the man knows how to play the media game, so don’t get your hopes up.

Articles from both the Contra Costa Times and the Sacramento Bee attempt to assess at midseason the effects of the third deck closure. In both pieces, A’s President Michael Crowley explains that the decrease in average attendance is what was expected, as long as the customer experience was enhanced – which according to them, it has. The Bee’s article has quotes from a Vacaville fan who misses the ability to walkup on gameday to get third deck seats – as do I. The net effect – increased advanced ticket sales – was alluded to but not expounded upon.

There’s a sense of overstatement when looking at the numbers, especially because anyone who looks at them will have a particular perspective – that of a lamenting, displaced fan, or that of a fan who likes the crowd feel more, or even a person like me who dispassionately views the change. With that in mind, here are a couple of (uh-oh, here it comes) graphs that might give you a better understanding.

The graph above (click the pic for a larger version) shows the volatility of the A’s attendance over the last 1 1/2 seasons. Also included is the Giants’ 2005 trend, which thanks to high numbers of season ticket holders is not nearly as volatile as the A’s. I wrote in April that one of the big points was to make the demand curve less elastic, and while that’s happened in part due to the artificial capping of the Coliseum’s capacity, I imagine that the effect may not be as good as desired. Excuses abound from the wet, cold spring to the A’s usual May slide to the lack of a big time, in-his-prime slugger. Frankly, if Eric Chavez had 25 HR and 75 RBI by now the A’s attendance would be better, since their record would probably be better as well.

This graph shows the change in average attendance over the season. In this case, it’s much easier to see how the May doldrums affect the A’s and how things trend up as the weather heats up. Normally, the A’s go on a tear in June and July that translates into increased interest for August. Injuries resurface towards the end of August, and despite the team usually being in a pennant race, performance and attendance both tend to peter out by the end of September. The occasional blip or uptick comes from one of the big series with the Giants, Yankees, or BoSox, or from a promotional night such as a fireworks show or bobblehead giveaway.

From the average attendance graph, the picture doesn’t look as bad since the difference between the A’s attendance this season and last season at the 47-game mark is less than 1,800 per game, or a whopping 7%. However, the A’s would have to average 31,000 per game from now until the end of the season to eclipse last season’s total – though that’s not the goal. The problem is now the same as always: will the A’s turn on the jets in the second half and pull away, or will the injuries and generally poor hitting bite them come the last two weeks of the season? That will be the true deciding factor. This is the Bay Area, after all. We are a fickle bunch (Sharks fans aside) and we don’t suffer mediocre play gladly. And with the BoSox offering retribution for the A’s surprising performance last week at Fenway, it’s just more reason for fans to scratch their heads and sit on the fence. Fencesitters don’t always head out to ballgames, not even during a heatwave.