Every time I tried to start this post earlier in the week, some fantastic new nugget from Maury Brown (site/Twitter) got me to read further. If you really want to get in depth, follow Maury’s thorough, seemingly unending coverage at The Biz of Football and at Forbes. It’s pretty much one-stop shopping if you want to get up to speed.

That said, I’ll preface my overview via an exchange I had with Maury a couple days ago on Twitter.

me: @BizballMaury If you walk into a restaurant filled with NFL players, your meal will be on them guaranteed.

Maury: RT Ha! Really want NFL accountability @marinelay3r: You walk into a restaurant filled w/NFL players, your meal will be on them guaranteed

For some time, he’s been trying to get some hard numbers to determine whether or not the NFL’s claims of economic turmoil have any real merit. So far, the evidence points to the league’s case being B.S. They’re trying to argue that rising player costs, combined with falling revenues, requires a reduction in the guaranteed share the players get. Here’s the league’s case in bullet point form:

• NFL wants a roughly 18% drop ($1 Billion) in the amount of money given to players.
• In lieu of a drop, the NFL wants to convert 2 preseason games into regular season games, making the regular season now 18 games long plus 2 preseason games.
• A rookie cap or slotting system must be introduced to keep rookie contracts in check.

The players union wants things kept the same, a sign that usually means that they (the side that favors the status quo) have the better end of things. And the lack of a rookie cap makes things seem a bit out of whack, even though the evidence is mostly anecdotal. The big issue is really the 18-game schedule. The NFL’s position is that revenue coming from the 16-game schedule is not good enough to sustain the teams, even though 30 of 32 showed profits in each of the last three years.

The players are most concerned with their own health. Most fans know that during the preseason, teams don’t usually have their starters play entire games, even having them play only a series in the first game and a quarter in the second game. The rest of the time is spent figuring out which other players will make the roster. The NFL wants to convert two of those games to meaningful regular season games, which is great from the standpoint that at least we as fans won’t be subjected to five pointless exhibitions in August. But it also increases the chances that players will be injured, even though they’re not getting anything extra from it.

Why is the NFL pushing for this so hard? Because they can afford to. They have a ton of leverage in this situation. League activity ends with this April’s NFL Draft, which itself will be different because teams won’t be able to sign players during the proceedings, and there may be limitations on trades during the draft. After that the nation will be in lockout watch, and precious team-building time in the form of OTA’s, minicamp and training camp will be lost. All the while, the players won’t be paid yet the league and owners will pocket $4 Billion in TV revenue even though there’s no guarantee that any games will be played. With no pressure to get anything done except their own agenda, it’s likely that a lockout will drag on well into the fall, perhaps longer than the 1987 NFL Strike.

The prevailing thought many fans may have is, “These guys can’t gamble on losing fans with an extended work stoppage.” Frankly, I think this is hogwash. Football has hit a perfect nexus of attracting both hardcore and casual fans. HDTV significantly improves the presentation, not as much as it does for hockey but more than baseball or basketball. If you’re a casual fan, you don’t need to show up more than once a week for four hours. If you’re a hardcore fan, you have plenty of things to suck you in during the week: the endless news cycles on ESPN and NFL Network, fantasy football, talk radio. There’s also the Super Bowl if you don’t care more than once a year. Even with each network paying out $1 Billion for the right to broadcast games annually, that’s a small price to pay for a ratings slam-dunk product. If there is a pro sport that is most resistant to backlash from a work stoppage, it’s pro football. In recent weeks NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has repeatedly tried to ensure the public that a deal could be done easily and quickly. NFLPA head De Maurice Smith has been sounding the alarm for a lockout for over a year. The NFL has had almost 25 years of labor peace and unmitigated growth thanks to the most harmonious labor-management relationship in pro sports. Right now, it’s hard to see them getting back to that point.