Shrinkage

When Coliseum City was originally conceived it was supposed to look something like this when fully completed, 800 acres in all.

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800 acre concept

 

Last last year we heard from Floyd Kephart and others that the project would be scaled back to around 200 acres.

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Coliseum City at 200 acres

 

Now we hear that it’s down to 120 acres, which is basically the original Coliseum complex plus the Malibu and HomeBase lots leading out to Hegenberger.

cc-120acres

120 acres

 

With the Raiders and A’s signed up to offer competing bids, the team working on Coliseum City now plays the role of facilitator and competitor, all at once. A single stadium’s footprint will be 14-20 acres. Two stadia would cover 35 acres. When you add the necessary streets and easements for other infrastructure, that should leave 60-70 acres to develop. I was not terribly optimistic from the get-go about the financing coming through, so I wasn’t surprised when one financier after another bailed out on the project. Now that the project’s size has shrunk a whopping 85%, the questions about its viability are even more pointed, especially when trying to pitch it as a way to keep both the A’s and Raiders in town. Just as we saw over the last year, we’re going to let the numbers (or lack thereof) prove these concepts out. If the Raiders can make it work with whatever developer they’re trying to get onboard, bully for them. If the A’s plans prove most feasible, then they get the spoils of developing one of the last large infill developments in the Bay Area. And if Kephart’s New City group somehow gets capital and the teams on board, they will have truly worked a miracle.

However, ask yourself this: If capital wasn’t biting at 800 acres and two stadia, why would they bite at 120 acres and two stadia? 

P.S. – The infrastructure price tag on the whole 800 acre project was supposed to be $344-425 million. Now that it’s 85% smaller, did that cost also proportionately decrease? Nope. The cost of infrastructure for the 120 acres, including the new transit hub and utility relocations, is $170 million. Factor that into your thinking. Some of that figure will be offset by grants, though really only for the transit hub. It’s still a nine figure infrastructure price tag.

 

39 thoughts on “Shrinkage

  1. So, a project that would have cost $531,250 per acre if we believe the estimates and go with the highest cost and no unexpected increases…would now cost about $1.42M per acre.

    If that’s the case, why so much downsizing?

  2. This could be right if it wasn’t so totally wrong. A lack of knowledge, facts and understanding makes for very bad conclusions as provided in this example. Stay tuned and perhaps the real facts won’t be as confusing.

    • @floyd- Why be so secret on correcting the inaccuracies- canr believe it impacts your competitive position- seems week to me to throw shots and not having anything to back it up with-

    • Floyd, any “inaccuracies” could be somewhat cleared up if documents were released. You know, the documents that you claim to have provided to the City of Oakland? Or do I have to do a FOIA request to get them?

    • Get er done Floyd!

    • @ FLOYD KEPHART
      My I ask you a question? Since ML says it’s actually you.
      Is there any way you could give us some vague idea, or concepts that would suggest how this could be accomplished with both teams? Obviously simply considering the acers involved (800, 200, and now 120); it’s not something that’s going to be accomplished simply by dividing the extra land for development.

    • “May I ask you a question?”

      • He’s on the Twitters too if you’re unable to get a comment response here. Stay cool, Lakeshore.

  3. @ML- any insight as to what the meeting between Raiders and AC on Tuesday was about? I have to believe the Raiders and NFL are seeing the writing on the wall- and there is no way they can compete with the impact a ballpark has on ancillary development- would expect them to pull out and say they are focused on LA before any public announcement that a ballpark is a much better investment than a football stadium- logical to all but still expect the NFL to continue and tey to take advantage of public dollars in other cities-

  4. The Twitter trolls are going to go nuts with this one. Hell, we’ve already got “Floyd Kephart” here just minutes after the post went up.

    On a more directly related note, what is the transit hub upgrade really looking to do? I know the pedestrian bridge needs to be replaced/widened, but do they also want to lengthen the platform? Or are we really just talking about cosmetic upgrades at the station itself?

    • They’re going to build a 3rd platform, build a completely new, covered pedestrian bridge, and integrate everything better with bus and Amtrak.

      • That makes sense. But how much does Amtrak even get used at that station?

      • Ridership numbers aren’t huge. The intent to make the area a better intermodal station is there. Currently the only other place where BART and Amtrak come together is Richmond. There’s huge room for improvement.

      • Slightly off topic, but with the Richmond connection in the north and the eventual connection to BART in San Jose, improving the connection at the Coliseum station doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

        Anyone coming into the Bay Area on Amtrak that needs to transfer to BART would do so at either Richmond or San Jose.

        For people traveling within the Bay Area, BART is going to be the better option over Amtrak.

        The only benefit I can see is for folks traveling into the Bay Area on Amtrak to catch a flight out of Oakland. I can’t imagine that’s a huge number of people and folks like that could always switch to BART at San Jose or Richmond.

        It’s possible that the infrastructure funds related to Amtrak are completely trivial and/or including Amtrak may open up more public funds, but this doesn’t make a whole lot of sense otherwise.

      • I don’t expect the expenditure to be big. A more secure, fully covered platform would be nice. I was told by Capitol Corridor that there is no ticket machine at the station because previously it was frequently vandalized.

      • Amtrak is a great way to get to games, especially for folks from Sacramento. From the South Bay, it’s quicker and easier than driving out to Fremont to catch BART. Plus it offers comfortable seating, great views and a bar car. 🙂

      • It’ll be irrelevant from the South Bay once the Phase 1 BART extension to Berryessa opens in a couple years. Even more so once the Phase 2 extension to Diridon is done.

      • Not necessarily completely irrelevant. The route they chose for BART and the number of stops will make that a much longer ride. Especially if you’re coming from further up the peninsula, it may still be quicker and easier to catch Amtrak in Santa Clara. Plus BART doesn’t have bar cars.

      • BART runs every 15 minutes. The Capital Corridor runs every hour and not all trains stop at all stations. I definitely wouldn’t rely on it to get home from an A’s game.

        Can’t disagree with you though on the bar car. Of course if you’re going to the Coli, sneaking booze on to BART might fit in better anyway 🙂

  5. Also, in before Nav/Elmano’s latest pile of BS that has no basis in reality. How many times has he threatened to stop posting here, again?

    Oops, I just gave him the attention he so clearly craves. My bad. That guy’s as absurd as some of the sock puppet accounts that troll daily on Twitter.

  6. How many billionaire financiers that are about to get a massive deal done troll a blog?

    • My sentiments exactly Jeffrey- Floyd learned some bad lessons from JQ and Dr. Death- everybody is wrong and shortly we will reveal the secrets to prove it- just trust us…embarrassing for Floyd- he had credibility in my view until this-

  7. 800 acre plan was pie in the sky. no was a project of that size would’ve been able to have been built in dysfunctional oakland.

    200 acre plan i don’t think would make sense since that portion of the land across from where the coliseum is was to have been part of an arena project which is unlikely to happen with the w’s all but going to frisco now.

    120 acres plan is and was probably the most realistic plan. mlb all but makes the most sense. we don’t need to get into the debate as they’ve been talked to death.

    but for baseball you’d have 81 regular season plus playoffs home games vs 10 or 12 at the most football home games including the maximum 4 extra preseason/postseason games that could take place. not to mention what maybe 750k-800k max people coming during the football season compared to over 2-3 million people coming during baseball season.

    no brainier for the city of oakland to choose which team to give the land to if this is truly a pick em but this is the city of oakland we’re talking about who’s favored the raiders over the a’s for over the last two decades.

    • Can’t disagree with anything you’re saying, but in my heart I hope if the Raiders make a viable proposal and it has to be one or the other that the city picks the Raiders.

      The Raiders are far more likely to actually leave the area if it doesn’t work out. Plus, the Coli site is a poor location for the A’s with the Giants in Mission Bay, but it’s a great location for the Raiders with the Niners in Santa Clara.

  8. If any plan was going to have shrinkage, I’d have expected it to by one that abuts the cold bay water.

  9. “I’m confident both the A’s, Raiders, as well as a new soccer franchise will be in Oakland for years to come.”

    Not to mention a new NHL team, underwater hotel in Lake Merritt, unicorn farm and a taller version of the Burj Khalifa.

  10. I will try an answer some of the questions and respond to some of the comments from this morning. Yes, this is the “real” Floyd Kephart. Who would want to be me anyway:-)There cannot be a “deal” discussion until the City and County agree on a process that can result in a proposal being submitted to the City and County legislative bodies for approval. We (including the Mayor Schaaff and President of the Board of Supervisors, Haggerty) are working to put that process in place but it is not there yet.

    The Master Plan and the DEIR covers 800 acres and that has not changed. The 3 sports teams and most of the publicly owned land are contained in the approximate 200 acres that comprises Phase 1 of the development plan being considered. This has not changed nor has the land shrunk even though it is occasionally engulfed in water.

    The Transit Hub is a major reason the Coliseum district is a potentially viable project, The expansion and full utilization of BART is necessary for any investment to be made….by anyone.

    The documents submitted by us to date that are final are available and those that are being created or reviewed and still purely analytical to establish actual facts are not. We are trying to establish real facts instead of those continuing to be made up or have become anecdotal and not real so the City, County and yes, New City can make a rational decision on what can be done and under what circumstances.

    No one has submitted any proposal that details a development plan and probably won’t until there is a negotiating group on the public side with whom to submit such a plan for consideration.

    I am not sharing our considerations or decision making factors during the discussion stage with anyone that is not a principal in the transaction and that leaves you out of that distribution Marine Layer. Once we have something that can be considered by the public, it will be presented for you to analysis and report accordingly. Until then………I will continue to attempt and correct misstatements of fact although my time to review the various press reports and blogs are limited. This morning I just happened to be on line when the post went up.

    As for my PR or lack thereof, my intent is to not embarrass myself or the City of Oakland.

    Hope this helps clarify some of the situation.

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