How does “Dublin Raiders” sound?

No? Try “California Raiders.”

Maybe not. In any case, according to the SF Business Times, the Raiders have expressed interest in the Army-owned Camp Parks site in Dublin. So far, Dublin mayor Janet Lockhart isn’t a proponent, saying, “My personal opinion is it would destroy the city of Dublin if we even considered it.”

One interesting nugget about Camp Parks is at the end of the article, which states that the Army isn’t allowed to sell land. They are able to exchange land for construction of additional structures, but my guess is that an $800 million football palace isn’t all that well suited for reserve training purposes. There was no mention of how a stadium on the site would be paid for, nor what the plan would look like.

Is it a stalking horse or something more concrete? What about negotiations with the Coliseum Commission? We’ll find out soon enough.

And now the fun begins.

Next Tuesday @ 6:00 p.m. (note the time change), the Fremont City Council will have a session to discuss, among other things, the enviromental impact report. Not sure if it’s a general Q&A thing, or for comments to the site plan. Regardless, it’s the first of many sessions that will help shape the final plan.

Links:
Meeting agenda
Webcast (only live during session)

Fremont’s quest for sales tax dollars continues as it considers a new shopping center at its southern limit along I-880:

The 49-acre Bayside Marketplace would include several big box retailers, about a dozen smaller shops and 1,993 parking spaces just north of Dixon Landing Road.

The distinction that the retailers would be big box and the usual assortment of smaller retailers is important, as Bayside Marketplace is not expected to be competition for the ballpark village’s upscale retailers. Cisco Field and the ballpark village are 4 miles north.

However, the new shopping center would provide competition for other big box-anchored centers in the area. In a small area sandwiched between the bay and nearby hills, it’s a curious choice to add additional, similar retail since at first glance it would appear that the area if pretty well serviced already. Here’s a partial list of nearby stores:

• McCarthy Ranch (2 miles south, Milpitas): Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Borders, OfficeMax, Sports Authority, Michaels, Ross
• Pacific Commons (4 miles north, Fremont): Costco, Circuit City, Kohl’s, Old Navy, Lowe’s, Ashley Furniture, DSW, Party America, Office Depot
• Auto Mall/Durham (4 miles north, Fremont): Wal-Mart, Fry’s, Home Depot
• Great Mall (4 miles south, Milpitas): Kohl’s, Marshalls, Burlington Coat Factory, Home Depot
• NewPark Mall (6 miles north, Newark): Target, Macy’s, Sears, Toys “R” Us
• Fremont Hub (8 miles north, central Fremont): Target, Bed Bath & Beyond, Barnes & Noble, Borders, Trader Joe’s, Cost Plus, PetsMart, Pier 1 Imports

Looks like they’re pretty well covered, right? If the developer and Fremont are willing to move in this direction, more power to them.

A couple of nice benefits will come out of the project. The developer is also going to build on 49 of the parcel’s 150 acres. The rest has already been converted to wetlands (I’ve biked through there in the past, including what appears to be an old runway/tarmac). Then there’s the extension of Fremont Boulevard all the way down to Dixon Landing Road. The extension will provide an alternate parallel route along I-880 along with bike lanes and new trails. Currently, Fremont Blvd hits a dead end at a flood control channel that defines the northern limit of the property. Fans coming from North San Jose (hello, Cisco) can use McCarthy/Fremont to bypass 880, then head onto Cushing, which would take them straight to the ballpark. The extension’s been in the plan for years but the downturn in the commercial real estate market forced the developer to pull back. The extension could prove beneficial in lightening the load from the south.

For the glutton in all of you, the A’s are reopening three sections of the vaunted View level/third deck. All 81 games will be available for the low, low price of $35! Borrowing a page from the Dodgers, the A’s are designating sections 316-318 as All-You-Can-Eat sections. Fans will enter through a special entrance and will be given wristbands indicating their, um, opportunistic status. Each fan can go to one of the open View level concession stands and get two food items and a soda per visit. The stands will be open until the end of the 7th inning.

The concept was a massive hit at Dodger Stadium, so they’re trying it here. I suppose if you can’t recognize many of the players on the field, at least you can gorge yourself enough that it won’t matter. Whether or not it’s really a deal depends on what items will be available. Beer’s not on the menu. Some of the premium items such as Saag’s sausages and Round Table personal pizzas probably aren’t either. I hope that at the very least they have big dogs or polish sausages. Hamburgers and nachos would be good too. If you’re going to stuff yourself with ballpark food of questionable nutritional value, go all the way!

One thing the Coliseum will have over Dodger Stadium: Dodger Stadium doesn’t include ice cream in their deal.

Steve Van Dorn, head of Santa Clara’s Chamber of Commerce and its Convention-Visitors Bureau, wrote an opinion piece for Monday’s Merc in favor of a proposed hotel or transient occupancy tax. The additional 2% levy, which would be tacked onto nightly bills for eight Santa Clara hotels near Great America, is projected to raise $35 million in funds for the stadium.

As noted previously, this isn’t the least bit surprising because the supporting hotels all see dips in business during the fall, and one of them would likely become the hotel of choice for visiting teams. Undoubtedly they would also benefit if the Santa Clara stadium were awarded a Super Bowl, or if a bowl game were played in the area.

Still, even with the tax there’s a projected $51 million funding gap for the Niners’ new digs and some sources that were previously considered are now off limits.

…Like the man said.

I don’t usually get into moves on the baseball side. I feel compelled to do this now because there’s a bit of fervor and backlash about first the Haren trade and now the Swisher trade (guess Swish isn’t getting that ballpark-facing condo now, eh?).

I harken back to a game at the Coliseum in 1998. The A’s were predictably mediocre, fighting to stay out of the cellar. I sat out in left field for a Wednesday “businessperson’s special.” The announced crowd may have been 10,000 but I could have sworn only half that many were there.

Late in the game a journeyman utility player named Jack Voigt played mop-up duty for Rickey Henderson in left. A couple of bleacher creatures played a little game with Voigt. They repeatedly begged him for some kind of souvenir paraphrenalia. The exchange went something like this, in rapid fire like an well-practiced vaudeville routine:

Fan 1: Voigt, give me your batting glove!
Fan 2: How about your hat?
Fan 1: Sunglasses!
Fan 2: Jersey!
Fan 1: Socks!
Fan 2: Jock!
Fan 1: Underwear!

Amused, Voigt turned around quickly and saluted the two fans. The fans yelled in delight.

Voigt didn’t give the two fans any souvenirs AFAIK. The game would be one of Voigt’s last as 1998 was his last season in the majors. He’s now a realtor in his hometown of Sarasota, FL.

Throughout the A’s eight year run of winning baseball (only surpassed in Oakland by the nine year run from ’68 to ’76), I’ve mentally gone back to those games when I was younger. I didn’t have a mortgage, much disposable income, or many responsibilities. The team was horrible and somewhat depressing at times, yet I enjoyed going to the ballpark just the same. In fact, in some ways I enjoyed the game just as much then as I relished being present when the A’s went up 2-0 on both the Yankees (road) and Red Sox (home) in the ALDS. No matter where the A’s play, regardless of record, I’ll still love the game and the team the same way. No labor stoppages, drug scandals, or other ills can take that away.

So I look at the two recent trades as the end of an era. I come not to bury, but to praise the first Beaneball/Moneyball tenure. It’s given me and many others immeasurable amounts of joy, fulfillment, and sadness. I’m proud to be an Oakland Athetics fan. I’m proud of my team.

That said, Billy sure knows how to rip a fan’s heart out, doesn’t he? He does it with surgical precision, and who’s to argue with the results? Depending on how long you’ve been a fan, you’ve seen this tearing down and rebuilding happen already once, twice, maybe three times. Chances are you’re used to it. You may have even steeled yourself somewhat as I have. The A’s aren’t the Yanks or Red Sox, who never really have to go through such a difficult process.

It’s for that reason, that sense of history, that I don’t understand the conspiracy theory going around. The idea is that the fire sale is being done to help grease the skids to Fremont by alienating additional older fans. I can understand this if you’ve only been a fan since 2000 and you don’t have that appreciation for the A’s tenure in Oakland. But if you have been a fan for 20, 30, 40 years, you know this is inevitable. Sure, it would be advantageous for ticket sales and marketing if the A’s put together a highly competitive team by the time the ballpark opens, but we don’t even know when the ballpark will open. 2010? 2011 or later? We all know how injury-prone this team has been. A couple of injuries can mean the difference between winning the division and packing it in in late August. Should Billy also shift his scouting/drafting plans to move towards less risky players who have lower ceilings?

What we are witnessing is the product of the MLB economic system. Since most teams aren’t the big money teams, their windows of opportunity have to precisely defined. Good draft yields and healthy players that proceed through the system in a timely manner are paramount. As a team gets better, it gets worse picks and has to take more chances to replenish the farm system. Over the last couple of years this strategy has not paid off for the A’s. Plus the A’s aren’t in the position to pay exhorbitant fees for international players. They can’t make frequent dips into the free agent market for big ticket players. We’ve had eight years of mostly wonderful, at times heartbreaking, always entertaining baseball. Billy and his current/former assistants have defied the odds repeatedly. Let’s take a moment to appreciate this, then move on to the next era. As Billy folds this hand, we know that the next hand’s just around the corner.

I’m not usually one to dabble in rumormongering, but this one seemed juicy so I can’t really resist. During KNBR’s 10 a.m. segment on Wednesday featuring Gary Radnich and Tony Bruno, a caller claimed that the FOX affiliation in the Bay Area is up for grabs, with longtime station KTVU losing grip and Radnich’s own KRON in the running. Radnich tacitly confirmed the rumor, saying (I’m paraphrasing here) that the station didn’t get involved with MyNetworkTV for nothing. MyNetworkTV is the tiny, failing broadcast network owned by FOX.

Not that the A’s are performing well ratings-wise against Dr. Phil, but this would certainly explain why KRON wouldn’t pursue a lengthy deal with the A’s. KTVU could be in serious trouble if they lose FOX, as they’d become just another independent station with few prospects (yes, I’m including MyNetworkTV). Longtime news anchor Dennis Richmond is retiring next spring, which would put the KTVU news operation in a similar position to, well, what KRON is in right now. KTVU is not owned by FOX. It’s owned by Cox Communications, which has long resisted FOX’s offers to buy and fostered a sense of autonomy for KTVU. Among the shows of autonomy: KTVU has in the past used CNN national video instead of FOX News, and it still partners with CNN on its website. KTVU is the only one of the Bay Area’s four major network stations that is not owned by the parent network. Should KTVU lose FOX to KRON, could it provide an opening for the A’s? We’ll see.

Meanwhile in Santa Clara, rising costs and limited sources of funding put the project underfunded by $51 million. The key appears to be the city’s preference not to give up development rights to some key parcels of land north of the stadium site (quotes from Assistant City Manager Ron Garratt):

Revenue from land leases “is the one significant revenue source in the general fund that is locally controlled,” he said in an interview. “The state can’t come in and take it; the county can’t touch it. It’s critical. It’s 10 percent of the general fund now and it’s projected to grow somewhat higher.”

The proposal calls for a large amount of gameday revenues being routed toward debt service. However, there are no plans for a land lease payment from the 49ers for the stadium land. It’s unclear how the $51 million gap would be bridged. The team indicated that they or the NFL may be able to raise additional money. For their sake I hope so since the city says it’s tapped out at their stated $136 million contribution.

Nearby hotels are positive about a plan to create a Mello-Roos district that would levy an additional occupancy tax, helping to fund the stadium. Many of those hotels are also interested in becoming the hotel of choice for visiting teams, so there’s some direct benefit there. The backup site, or bus/overflow lot, is looking more and more like the best site with each passing day.

The humorous part of it was the list of demands submitted by Cedar Fair, operator of Great America. Cedar Fair wants to be compensated for the 4 days of lost revenue every year when they’ll have to close the park because of conflicts with football games. They also are demanding control of all parking revenues from all events at the stadium. Good luck with that. Does anyone else find it odd that two companies from Ohio are duking it out over the fate of a Bay Area-based team?

Over the last few weeks, I’ve finally taken the plunge into HDTV. The geek in me won’t go about it the normal way, so I’ve been looking at more than just TV’s. As much as I like TiVo I couldn’t justify laying out cash for yet another monthly subscription, so I decided to find out what TiVo alternatives were available. In the end I went with a neat little product called HDHomeRun from Livermore company Silicondust. It has two digital tuners that pick up free digital feeds from either cable or over-the-air. Those feeds are sent into your home network and can be streamed or recorded by any computer on the network. Not every channel comes through free and unencrypted. Most of the major cable networks are encrypted and require a cable box. YMMV but it’s worked well so far for me.

Apparently the Giants have also been messing around with TV. Last week the Giants bought a sizable stake in FSN Bay Area, which will put them in excellent financial shape for the next 25 years. The details:

• The team bought a 30% stake, which comes out both the Comcast and FOX stakes. Comcast now owns 45%, while FOX has 25%.
• Giants games will continue to be broadcast on the channel, which will officially benamed Comcast SportsNet before the season starts.
• CSN will show at least 130 Giants games now that the Giants’ deal with KNTV has a reduced schedule compared to KTVU.
• Existing agreements with the A’s, Warriors, and Sharks will be unchanged (those run through the end of the decade).
• CSN will produce a nightly local sports newscast. It already produces Sportsnite for the existing CSN West channel, which is geared towards the Central Valley currently. It’s not clear whether the new CSN channel will have a specific Bay Area focus or if it will be merged with CSN West (which is partly owned by the Maloof brothers).

The Giants picked a good time to work this deal out. It gets them a nice new stream of revenue, which along with the $100 million stake in the channel, will raise the team’s value significantly. It should be easier to work with sponsors who will now know that the Giants have a 25-year run of stability behind it. And while it hasn’t been mentioned yet, should Peter Magowan and his group decide to divest themselves of the team, they could get upwards of $600 million for the franchise.

What about the A’s?
If you think the A’s have been left out in the cold, they aren’t. Right now the broadcasting world is in a major state of flux, with the digital conversion coming in February 2009 and AT&T starting to offer rival services that rival Comcast’s cable TV, the rules are quickly going to change.

Let’s say the A’s wanted to start their own cable sports network. There a couple rules they’d have to follow in order to get started:

• If you want to be carried by Comcast, you must give them a taste. Like Tony Soprano dealing with his capos, Comcast wants their envelope. That’s means Comcast wants a piece of whatever new channel you’re launching. They’ll help you get production going. If you want to go it alone, good luck getting any help from them. Note: When scanning for my local free channels, several networks I didn’t expect to find were available: Vs., TVOne, and Comcast SportsNet West. All three are partly or wholly owned by Comcast. If FSNBA becomes CSN West, CSNW won’t be free for long.
• Don’t ask to be on expanded basic. Comcast is pushing all new sports networks to their “digital sports tier.” A legacy network such as FSNBA or ESPN/ESPN2 will stay on expanded basic, but everything else is meant for the sports tier. That goes for national single-sport networks such as NFL Network and NBATV, as well as new regional sports networks. Part of the reasoning is that Comcast doesn’t want to pass along the often high subscriber fees to regular customers who may not be interested in additional sports networks (they also frequently complain about rising cable bills). Another is that by relegating a RSN to a digital channel, it takes up far less bandwidth than an analog basic channel.
• The satellite companies won’t offer any favors either. DirecTV and Dish are feeling the pinch as they have to carry hundreds more channels simultaneously than the typical regional cable operator. They’ll carry your channel as long as you don’t ask for overly exhorbitant fees.

As you can see, right now isn’t exactly the best time for the A’s to start getting entrepreneurial. At least not in TV land. However, change is afoot.

The Digital TV Transition
On February 17, 2009, all US broadcasters are supposed to switch over from analog to completely digital transmissions. Many consumers won’t really notice as they may already have their TV served up to them by some kind of set top box (cable or satellite). That old “cable-ready” TV you may have put in the garage? Or that trusty 4″ portable deal you bought several years ago to bring to sporting events? Those will be useless.

Over-the-air broadcasts will be digital, and to help the government is helping by subsidizing $1 billion in new digital set top boxes for viewers who only get over-the-air TV. Digital broadcasts are more bandwidth-efficient than analog, so the government is reclaiming some of that bandwidth for other uses. You may have heard recently about the 700 MHz wireless spectrum auction, scheduled for this coming January. Verizon, Google, and Cox are among several bidders for certain pieces of spectrum, which could carry voice and data faster and more reliably than existing networks. The 700 MHz spectrum has been used by OTA channels 52-69.

For cable, the process may be a little slower as some cable providers are preparing to keep at least a few analog stations (the regular broadcast networks) alive for a little longer depending on customer response. Cable operators are mandated to carry both analog and digital signals for the time being, an extension of “must-carry” rules. As the old analog channels are replaced completely by digital (including HDTV), bandwidth will be freed up. Some of that bandwidth is slated for video-on-demand services and more HD channels, some will be used for higher-speed internet access. (AT&T’s U-verse service is IP-based and is far different from what Comcast or Verizon provide.)

Within all of that freed bandwidth should be additional space for a combo SD/HD regional sports network, should the A’s decide to launch one.

Still need a partner
Even with all of that, an A’s-based regional sports network won’t be viable unless there’s additional programming. To get that, they’ll need to look south to San Jose, and the Sharks. The A’s and Sharks are in similar positions relative to the local TV market. They perform worse than other teams that broadcast during the same season (A’s vs. Giants, Sharks vs. Warriors). Both will be catering heavily to a Silicon Valley corporate base. Both have limited radio deals and are disadvantaged in the local media market compared to the other Bay Area teams. Chronologically they are the youngest franchises in the Bay Area. And their seasons are compatible, with the A’s regular season ending when the Sharks’ season starts (and vice-versa). Quakes 4.0 will be an integral piece, and their summer schedule isn’t so heavy as to cause frequent conflicts.

The teams can’t stop there. There are tons of other teams in the area and no one needs to look under rocks to find them. Did you know that CSN West and the St. Mary’s men’s basketball team have been expanding their broadcasting deal the last three years? That there are dozens of great high school football rivalries that don’t get the regional recognition they deserve because of meager coverage?

The A’s recently re-upped with KICU for 3 years. The deal probably isn’t much to sneeze at, but that’s fine because the market will truly open up at the turn of the decade. Once it does, the A’s need to be poised to strike. There’ll be a window of opportunity for their own media independence, but that window won’t be open forever.

Apologies for not having a post in the past couple weeks, everyone. Honestly, not much has happened with the A’s regarding the stadium matters. The environmental consultant was approved as part of a consent vote with other items on 11/27. The city council session still ran 4+ hours, most of it devoted to a single agenda item: a development at I-680 and Auto Mall/Durham called Sabercat Center. The project faced vigorous opposition from residents of the Mission San Jose neighborhood, many of whom have homes a stone’s throw away from the project site. Despite the seemingly endless stream of residents opposed to Sabercat Center, the council approved the project 4-1 anyway. Is that foreshadowing for Cisco Field? Probably not, because the two main criticisms of Sabercat Center were its vertical orientation (far different from the SFR’s that dominate the area) and its location literally on top of the Hayward fault. Immediate NIMBY concerns don’t really affect Cisco Field as it’s across I-880 from any nearby residence. It’s also a good two miles from the Hayward fault, slightly less than the distance from the Coliseum to the same fault. In any case, nothing’s happening until after the New Year.

The holidays haven’t halted everyone’s work.

• Newark is debating the fate of a parcel at its southern edge near Pacific Commons. Plans for the land known as “Area 3” and “Area 4” include residential development and a golf course. Like Cisco Field, the key is rezoning of land currently zoned industrial. Unlike Cisco Field, some of the project land is wetlands, which means additional wetlands creation will be required.
• The moribund 49ers just hired Andy Dolich to be their COO, while Jed York may been crowned owner/king of Ninerland. Meanwhile, it appears a hotel tax may be what helps raise the public portion of the 49ers stadium bill. Nearby hotel operators (Hilton, Marriott) are on board based on initial quotes.
• The Tampa Bay Rays are looking at their downtown St. Petersburg spring training site as a future permanent home. The new ballpark would be a waterfront, open-air facility with a retractable roof that would deploy like a sail, protecting fans from rain (but not heat, though concourses would be air-conditioned). Financing would come from the Rays, proceeds from the sale of dev rights at the team’s current home, Tropicana Field, and other public sources. Eerie resemblance of the mast structure to a similar (and failed) concept at Montreal’s Olympic Stadium aside, the design is quite cool. Part of Tampa Bay would have to be filled in.
• Miami pols have unveiled a massive, expansive redevelopment plan that would incorporate the new Marlins stadium at the site of the to-be-demolished Orange Bowl, along with a co-located, 25,000-seat soccer stadium, museums and a tunnel. It’ll take a public vote, a stepped-up contribution from the Marlins, and the Marlins building a 6,000-space parking garage for the plan to work.

Oh yeah, some report was released as well. Which leads to the self-explanatory new poll item on the right.

Opposition has to come from somewhere, and its most consistent form appears to be former Fremont mayor Gus Morrison, who wrote a letter to the Fremont City Council criticizing the A’s Community Specific Plan. In this round he assesses the A’s parking plan as inadequate, citing the A’s as having “only 5,800 permanent parking spaces identified for the proposed 32,000-seat ballpark.”

Those who have been reading these pages for a while know that 5,800 permanent spaces only tells part of the story. As mentioned in a previous post, here’s the true parking breakdown:

• Interim/opening day buildout: 21,450 spaces (11,304 ballpark/10,146 non-ballpark)
• Final buildout: 20,646 spaces (10,500 ballpark/10,146 non-ballpark)

The interim plan includes the use of the 41-acre West Cushing parcel, which will be gradually built out into mixed development over several years. Just as the City of San Jose has an agreement with the Sharks to maintain a certain number parking spaces, the A’s will have a similar agreement with Fremont. Early indications are that the right number is 10,500, which is more than the current Coliseum lot capacity. There are options available to bridge the 4,700-space gap:

• Use of the 40-acre city-owned parcel next to the planned rail station. The lot will be somewhat remote and the city may want to open it up to more uses than just parking (for instance, a public park) which would limit the space available. As the A’s negotiate with the city and the school district on space allotted for public use and parking, it’s likely the city-owned parcel will be divvied up in a manner that suits all parties. Should that not work out the A’s can also…
• Build garages. Keith Wolff has indicated that this option exists if demand calls for it. Keep in mind that they’re already building 10,000 parking spaces in garages for residential and commercial use. They’ll have agreements in place to preserve required parking for both of those uses, so the ballpark requirement won’t be able to infringe. Additional garage space may become a necessity as the West Cushing parcel is developed. That responsibility won’t fall on Fremont, it’s up to the A’s. In the end, having adequate amounts of parking is sound business. At least in this case, the A’s have the better part of 10 years to plan and adjust accordingly. Then there’s also yet another option…
• Buy additional surrounding lots. I pointed out in my breakdown of the CSP that the A’s haven’t bought all of the Brandin Court properties yet. Having only 2/3 of that area alone accounts for the aforementioned 5,800 spaces. Add in the remaining properties and you add another 1,000 or so. Having one large contiguous space near the ballpark allows for flexibility if/when a garage comes into play.

For some reason, Morrison seized upon this bit from the Parking Facilities description:

It should also be noted that there are approximately 8.4 million square feet of R&D/Office, Industrial and Warehouse space within 1 mile of the proposed Cisco Field with an estimated 12,000 parking stalls. It is very common for a portion of surrounding commercial owners/tenants to sell parking for ballpark related events in evenings and on weekends when their parking stalls are not in use.

He then took the time to count 4,199 non-retail spaces within one mile of the ballpark site, based on calculations using Google Earth. While I applaud Morrison for using such a good application, his worry appears to be misplaced. He’s probably right about his estimate, especially now that a large swath of previously industrial-zoned land in the area is being converted into commercial (the old Creative Labs warehouse comes to mind). Still, nowhere in the CSP do the A’s factor these third-party, privately-owned spaces into their parking estimates. Nor do they say this type of use will become part of the eventual parking plan. There may be possibilities there thanks to the fact that much of the land in the area is owned by ProLogis and Lam Research, who can act as go-betweens (ProLogis is helping on the parking plan for the existing Pacific Commons center). Even if there isn’t a single space that comes from these third-party lots, there will be over 20,000 spaces available for the entire ballpark village. Then there’s also this nugget from the same paragraph:

It is also anticipated that a portion of Cisco Field attendees would shop/dine at the Mixed Use District prior to the game and would qualify for a discounted validation to park within the Mixed Use District as they are also patrons of that district.

How many fans would take advantage? There’s no estimate and that’s a good thing. Fans who choose to take this option end up with a win-win, as they lighten the load on the ballpark parking facility, they get (likely) discounted parking, and they stick around a little longer before and/or after the game to lessen the strain on road infrastructure.

Morrison’s next salvo will involve traffic. I hope (and expect) it to be more enlightening than his crying wolf about parking.