In 12 seasons as a point guard in the NBA, Kevin Johnson averaged 9.1 assists per game. Even though he’s 13 years removed from his last game in a Phoenix Suns uniform, KJ has shown throughout this drive to keep the Kings that he can still run the point and dish out dimes like he was 26, not 46. KJ deserves credit for putting together the coalition of civic and business leaders, outside big money private equity investors (whales), and his owners of other teams that he has been lobbying to Sacramento’s cause.

That’s not to say that KJ has complete control of the situation. He still faces a formidable bid from a Seattle group that has already done the paperwork necessary to buy the team from the Maloof family. All KJ can do as mayor is to put together the best possible presentation and the most credible group to represent Sacramento. Everything else falls to the NBA and David Stern to decide.

During Thursday’s State of the City address, KJ finally revealed the names of the equity partners, along with other details important to the Sacramento bid. Let’s dispense with that information quickly:

• Mark Mastrov will head the group attempting to buy the club.
• Ron Burkle will head the group looking to build a new downtown arena.
• The site being considered is Downtown Plaza, where a mall is currently located.
• The city and the NBA still expects the arena to be a public-private partnership.
• The previously divulged 20 local business leaders looking to invest $1 million apiece for a share of the team are all going in on the 7% minority share currently tied up in bankruptcy court.
• Former Kings great Mitch Richmond is one of the group of 20.
• The bid will also attempt to bring back the Sacramento Monarchs WNBA franchise, which folded in 2009 as the Maloof family started to go into the red.
• The city intends to get its $75 million loan paid in full, and redevelop the Natomas area (where Sleep Train Pavilion is located) as part of a long range plan.
• The city will put together a deal that involves no new taxes and has no negative impact on the general fund.

While the presence of Mastrov and Burkle were the worst-kept secret of the whole affair, the structure of their relationship to the deal is a surprise. The thought going in was that they might go in together on the team and arena. Instead, by splitting the tasks, it allows the two alpha dogs to bring in their own people for the part they’re most interested in. Mastrov could revive the group that he put together to bid on the Warriors for $420 million in 2010. The fact that Mastrov’s group made it to the final round of bidding should show to the owners and Stern that they can be comfortable with Mastrov. In addition, if Mastrov is bidding on 50-65% of the team as Hansen-Ballmer were doing, the group’s outlay should be less than what they offered for the W’s, along the lines of $300 million is my guess. Mastrov had this to say about his bid:

“This is about building a winning franchise for a winning community. Sacramento has proven time and time again to be a great NBA market. As a longtime resident of Northern California with deep ties to Sacramento, I am thrilled to be a part of an effort to do something special for the region.”

Burkle gets to bring in his friends at AEG to work on the arena project. This would be synergistic with a rumored bid for AEG by Burkle. The AEG sale is still up in the air as offers are not coming close to the $8 billion that Phil Anschutz is seeking. As of today, those monitoring the AEG horserace have real estate investment giant Colony Capital in the lead. The structure also allows one degree of separation between Burkle and the Maloofs, who aren’t exactly buddies after Burkle helped block the Maloofs’ attempt to move the Kings to Anaheim a year ago. Burkle had his own quote about the news:

“I am excited about the economic possibilities for the arena and for downtown Sacramento as a whole. We have an opportunity to transform downtown into a vibrant hub of economic and cultural activity that will create jobs and generate a positive economic impact for years to come.”

Downtown Plaza has languished for some time, and calls for a serious revamping regardless of whether or not there’s an arena. Interestingly, one of the tenants is a 24 Hour Fitness center that only opened in 2011 (update: reopened after closing). It’s one of thirteen in the Sacramento region and the only one anywhere near downtown. I would imagine that even with an arena, the 24 Hour Fitness location would be preserved at Mastrov’s behest, perhaps even expanded to include a new Kings practice facility. It also seems likely that Macy’s would stay put, at least the main (women’s) store on one of the six blocks that make up Downtown Plaza. One complicating factor is that there are 3,700 parking spaces underneath the mall. While those spaces would be extremely helpful for arena infrastructure, the NBA apparently doesn’t want parking directly underneath an arena, so those spaces will have to go. That could create a big sticking point when EIR time rolls around, since something will be needed to backfill the lost capacity. Knowing a little about the layout, the plan that would make the most sense would be to demolish the center of the mall, build the arena there, then continue to use the 24 Hour Fitness, multiplex, Macy’s, and food court, while buying additional property on the fringes to build parking garages and additional commercial space.

Will all of this be enough? Based on history, the odds remain stacked against Sacramento. At least the city and KJ are putting the best deal possible in front of the NBA. KJ even sounded highly magnanimous in his address, as he took time to thank the Maloofs for their contributions to the region over the years. He didn’t have to do that as the Maloofs are already one foot out the door. But he did, and it showed the kind of diplomacy and class one would expect of a prominent leader. In his time in the Association, KJ learned a thing or two about working the refs. It works. That’s a stark contrast from Wednesday’s SotC speech by Oakland Mayor Jean Quan, which contained yet another minor snipe at Lew Wolff (she described her meeting with Wolff as “a tough day” in line with the more difficult moments of Occupy movement). One of the frequent refrains I hear from the Oakland-only crowd is, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.” That’s fair. How about another popular adage, “You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.” You want to rise above? How about rising above the fray? Food for thought, Oakland.

Update 2:30 PM – Sacramento reporter and occasional River Cats fill-in play-by-play man Rob McAllister reports that AEG is not involved with Burkle on the arena side. 

Dangberg says AEG not involved this time around as equity partner for arena. Could come later if Burkle/Mastrov want AEG to operate arena

— Rob McAllister (@Rob_McAllister) March 1, 2013

The Sacramento City Council voted 7-2 to approve ongoing discussions and negotiations to keep the Kings in the capital city. That wasn’t a surprise. What was a surprise was that another group created by minority partner John Kehriotis emerged that could put together a $750 million bid to buy the team and build an arena with City funding. For now, that bid has been relegated to Plan B, as the principals are working towards a public-private partnership on a new arena deal downtown.

For now, Kehriotis has demurred on giving details, allowing some in the media to push the presumed “whale” group to the top of the heap. There are so many variables and uncertainties in the plain that it’s impossible to tell who go-to group will be. If the “whale” group finds the project too expensive, the Kehriotis group will presumably be ready to go.

The vote authorized $150,000 to start consulting work and negotiations with the ownership group(s). The City is guided by certain negotiating principles, which were enumerated in the motion:

• Protect the Taxpayer   No new or increased taxes will be considered for the financing of the ESC. Those who use or directly benefit from the ESC may be asked to contribute through ticket surcharges or benefit assessments.
• Retire the Existing City Loan to the Kings   The existing City lease-revenue bond financing (loan) to the Kings must be retired. Any refinancing of the loan must be fully secured and collateralized to minimize the risk to the City.
• New Entertainment and Sports Center Must be Located Downtown   To achieve the greatest community benefit, the new ESC must be located downtown and provide for further economic development opportunity. The City and team owners will agree on a location that best meets the interests and goals of the City and stakeholders.
• Long-Term Commitment to Keep the Kings in Sacramento   In exchange for the City’s financial contributions there must be a secure, long-term commitment to keep the Kings in Sacramento.
• City Will Consider Investing Net Value of its Parking, Land and Other Assets   Consistent with the 2012 financing plan and terms the City will consider investing the net value of its parking, land and other assets. Best practices for the monetization of the parking assets will be utilized to provide the greatest value to the City, its businesses and customers, with the shortest possible term while providing the greatest support for the development of the ESC. Any losses to the General Fund that result from parking monetization must be backfilled by new and reliable revenues. In consideration of the City’s financial contribution, the City will own the new ESC.
• Public-Private Partnership   The project must be a true public-private partnership where both the City and the team share in the investment and returns of a new entertainment and sports center.
• Natomas Arena Site Economic Reuse   The economic reuse of the existing arena site in Natomas is a critical element in defining success.

That’s a lot of moving parts. To be fair, no one expects all of this stuff to be figured out right away. The NBA will want that arena piece well scoped, since that is the main sticking point for both Sacramento and Seattle going forward. The Kehriotis bid throws a wrench in there with its right-of-first-refusal and the interest in going with a fully private arena. In last night’s discussion there was a good amount of noise regarding Kehriotis. A fully private arena may look more politically expedient than a public-private arena, even if it means building at the current Natomas/Sleep Train Arena site instead of a downtown. Even the Natomas option is problematic because of a ban on construction in the area. Mayor Kevin Johnson has been working overtime to rally the resources in preparation for the Board of Governors meeting in April. Picking a horse (ownership group) was probably not on Johnson’s list of tasks. If both bids are legitimate, it’s a good problem to have. If not, the NBA could see Seattle as the easiest path. It promises to be a crazy next six weeks in Sacramento.

In what has to be considered a potential game changer, a Sacramento group wants to buy the Kings and build a privately-financed arena to keep the team in town. The kicker is that the group is headed by current Kings minority partner John Kehriotis, who owns 12.2% of the franchise. According to FOX 40 in Sacramento, the plan is to spend $750 million to buy the Kings and build an arena at either of the downtown sites or elsewhere in the region. The group claims that their plan won’t require any public money, such as the pledging of parking revenues from the 2012 arena plan.

This surprise news comes before the expected unveiling of the “whales” group which could contain Ron Burkle and/or Mark Mastrov. That’s supposed to happen towards the end of the week, when the league-imposed deadline for Sacramento to make a proposal (March 1) comes. The City-backed plan includes a public-private partnership on a downtown arena.

An unnamed source within the Kehriotis group explained that the group has $350 million in hand and a verbal commitment for the remaining $400 million. The key to the Kehriotis group’s bid is that Kehriotis, as a minority partner, has a right-of-first-refusal clause for any team sale. When this was revealed last month, it wasn’t clear that any of the minority partners would be able to put together the resources to put in a bid. If Kehriotis can pull this off, it could be the best and most politically easy way to keep the Kings in the capital. As big as $750 million, it’s well under the $1 billion Seattle and the Hansen-Ballmer group expected to put into Sonics 2.0. In addition, I’ve thought for some time that the cost estimates for a Sacramento were lowball, with the true cost of the arena approaching $500 million when completed.

The Kehriotis bid would also have to come under scrutiny first. The list of failed NBA team buyers is long and generally forgotten, and in a competitive situation, ROFR doesn’t necessarily mean the Kehriotis bid will be accepted. The group will undergo the same kind of vetting Hansen-Ballmer is getting, though Kehriotis’s status as a partner in the Kings should automatically generate some goodwill. The issue for the NBA will be the group’s ability to pull together all of its financing plan, which considering the size of the market, is extremely aggressive. It even contradicts a City staff report released Monday ahead of Tuesday’s city council meeting, which states that a fully private arena would not be “not economically viable” in Sacramento.

Unlike the NFL and MLB, there are a number of privately financed and owned arenas throughout the NBA, spanning both older venues (Madison Square Garden, The Palace of Auburn Hills, EnergySolutions Arena) to newer ones (Staples Center, Rose Garden). The Warriors plan to build their own privately financed arena with the league’s approval. If the Kehriotis group can make the numbers work, David Stern and the Board of Governors may see the arena as the path of least resistance. Both the Seattle arena plan and the main Sacramento plan involve large pledges of public money, which are subject to public review and referenda in all likelihood.

Ironically, the Kehriotis bid is sort of a double-edged sword for Sacramento, whose Mayor, Kevin Johnson, has been making the rounds and working the phones to put together a big bid of their own. With a public that is already predisposed to oppose a large public investment for an arena, citizens could easily look at Kehriotis and proclaim him the savior, rendering the “whales” bid and public arena investment unnecessary. There’s a delicate bit of negotiating at work here in that if both Sacramento groups’ ultimate goal is to keep the team in town without breaking the bank, one may have to step aside to avoid their own internal bidding war. Another possibility is the merging of groups to lighten the load, but if both have fundamentally different new arena plans and financing approaches, it may be difficult to come to a consensus. Besides, it’s a bit late to start merging plans.

Like the very hot Warriors sale situation in 2010, I would expect Stern and the BOG to simply pick the bid that works best for the league and the Maloofs. That means dollars, dollars, dollars. Stern will wake Tuesday morning to news of the Kehriotis bid, and I can’t imagine that he’ll be frowning about it.